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NA CWL Season 1 K/D Stats

On the last set of data that I posted, there were a number of concerns from angry redditors, and one suggestion that I found valuable. For everyone that simply wants to look at the data, I will give a brief explanation of how to interpret it. For everyone else who has concerns about the data or simply wants a deeper understanding of what is going on, I will write a separate section addressing that below the tables.
Pick a game mode, a player, and an opponent that you're interested in. Obtain the K/D of the player in that game mode from the first table below, and obtain the K/D multiplier of the opponent in that game mode from the second table below. Now, read this sentence.
"Based on the season 1 data, the model predicts that if (Player Name) played (Game Mode) against (Opponent) a very large number of times, his average K/D in those games is expected to be (K/D of player in game mode) times (Opponent's K/D multiplier in game mode)."
If you simply want the player's K/D against an average team, just replace the K/D multiplier of the opponent with 1. Thus, the K/D against an average opponent is as listed in the first table.
The FS column represents K/D against an average opponent over a full 5 game series. 1 HP, 2 SnDs, 1 UL, 1 CTF. The contribution to this statistic for each player from the other 4 game modes is weighted by each player's individual interactions per minute in that game mode and the average time of a game in that game mode. No FS K/D against individual teams method is included, as you would need to have each player's individual interactions per minute in each mode to do that, which would involve posting a large amount of data for an involved calculation that I doubt anyone will do.
1 Scump 1.32 Enable 1.25 Proofy 1.65 Scump 1.43 Scump 1.48
2 Formal 1.3 Formal 1.24 Formal 1.64 Attach 1.34 Theory 1.48
3 Octane 1.23 Octane 1.22 Aqua 1.59 Octane 1.33 Slacked 1.41
4 Saints 1.21 Havok 1.2 ColeChan 1.46 Formal 1.32 Phizzurp 1.36
5 Attach 1.21 Clayster 1.19 Nagafen 1.44 Crimsix 1.23 Fears 1.31
6 Slacked 1.2 Scump 1.19 Parasite 1.4 Saints 1.19 Blfire 1.27
7 Aqua 1.19 Methodz 1.18 Classic 1.38 Slasher 1.18 Enable 1.27
8 Crimsix 1.18 Saints 1.17 Saints 1.37 Slacked 1.18 Crimsix 1.24
9 Enable 1.17 Chino 1.14 Attach 1.32 Zooma 1.16 Octane 1.24
10 Chino 1.15 Loony 1.14 Chino 1.29 ColeChan 1.13 Attach 1.24
11 Zooma 1.14 Slacked 1.12 Theory 1.28 Accuracy 1.13 Legal 1.21
12 Proofy 1.14 Parasite 1.11 Crimsix 1.28 Diabolic 1.12 Lacefield 1.2
13 Methodz 1.14 Karma 1.11 Loony 1.25 Goonjar 1.12 Aqua 1.18
14 Slasher 1.12 Nameless 1.11 Zooma 1.21 Aqua 1.11 Goonjar 1.18
15 Blfire 1.12 Zooma 1.1 Scump 1.21 Fears 1.11 Saints 1.17
16 Parasite 1.12 Lacefield 1.09 Clayster 1.21 Chino 1.1 John 1.17
17 Clayster 1.1 Slasher 1.08 Blfire 1.19 Lacefield 1.09 Diabolic 1.16
18 Goonjar 1.1 Aqua 1.07 Remy 1.19 Methodz 1.09 Chino 1.14
19 Fears 1.1 Crimsix 1.07 Slasher 1.18 Proofy 1.08 Zooma 1.13
20 Lacefield 1.1 John 1.06 Havok 1.17 Legal 1.06 Proofy 1.12
21 ColeChan 1.08 Neslo 1.06 Methodz 1.17 Enable 1.05 Methodz 1.09
22 Loony 1.08 Blfire 1.06 PRPLXD 1.16 Clayster 1.04 Whea7s 1.09
23 Theory 1.08 Classic 1.05 Replays 1.16 Classic 1.04 Formal 1.09
24 John 1.08 Goonjar 1.05 Ricky 1.15 Happy 1.04 Spacely 1.09
25 Diabolic 1.07 Felony 1.04 Jkap 1.14 Aches 1.03 Parasite 1.09
26 Classic 1.07 Jkap 1.03 Mirx 1.13 Blfire 1.03 Faccento 1.08
27 Phizzurp 1.05 Teepee 1.03 Fears 1.13 John 1.02 Jkap 1.08
28 Havok 1.05 Attach 1.03 Aches 1.12 Sender 1 Aches 1.06
29 Aches 1.04 ColeChan 1.02 Slacked 1.12 Nagafen 0.98 Slasher 1.06
30 Legal 1.04 Aches 1.01 Octane 1.09 Faccento 0.98 Remy 1.05
31 Nameless 1.04 Mirx 1 Karma 1.09 Havok 0.98 Felony 1.04
32 Jkap 1.04 Faccento 1 Goonjar 1.09 Parasite 0.98 Nameless 1.03
33 Nagafen 1.03 Proofy 0.98 Diabolic 1.07 Whea7s 0.97 Loony 1.03
34 Remy 1.02 Happy 0.98 Pacman 1.07 Phizzurp 0.97 Ricky 1.03
35 Faccento 1.02 Phizzurp 0.98 John 1.06 Remy 0.96 PRPLXD 1
36 Karma 1.02 Remy 0.97 Sender 1.05 Ricky 0.96 CMPLX 0.99
37 Felony 1.01 Diabolic 0.97 Nameless 1.04 Jkap 0.95 Replays 0.99
38 Whea7s 1 Whea7s 0.97 Enable 1.04 Loony 0.94 Clayster 0.95
39 Ricky 1 Fears 0.96 Neslo 1.04 Sharp 0.94 Neslo 0.95
40 Neslo 0.99 Ricky 0.95 Felony 1.04 Nameless 0.94 Happy 0.95
41 Mirx 0.99 Legal 0.95 Faccento 1.03 Mirx 0.94 Mirx 0.94
42 Happy 0.97 Accuracy 0.94 CMPLX 1.02 Teepee 0.93 Nagafen 0.93
43 Sender 0.96 Nagafen 0.94 Whea7s 1.01 Felony 0.93 Sender 0.93
44 Accuracy 0.96 Theory 0.9 Legal 1.01 Spacely 0.93 Sharp 0.92
45 Teepee 0.96 Sender 0.9 Teepee 1 Karma 0.92 Karma 0.92
46 Replays 0.93 Pacman 0.89 Lacefield 0.98 Neslo 0.9 Classic 0.9
47 PRPLXD 0.93 Spacely 0.88 Ivy 0.95 PRPLXD 0.89 Killa 0.85
48 Spacely 0.92 Replays 0.86 Phizzurp 0.95 Theory 0.88 Pacman 0.85
49 Pacman 0.89 Sharp 0.85 Happy 0.89 Killa 0.85 ColeChan 0.85
50 Sharp 0.89 CMPLX 0.84 Accuracy 0.83 Ivy 0.84 Accuracy 0.83
51 CMPLX 0.88 PRPLXD 0.82 Sharp 0.81 Replays 0.83 Teepee 0.82
52 Ivy 0.82 Ivy 0.81 Killa 0.78 Pacman 0.83 Ivy 0.71
53 Killa 0.79 Killa 0.73 Spacely 0.78 CMPLX 0.78 Havok 0.67
K/D Multipliers
1 OpTic Gaming 0.88 Team eLevate 0.84 OpTic Gaming 0.84 OpTic Gaming 0.89
2 Rise Nation 0.91 OpTic Gaming 0.91 FaZe Clan 0.91 Rise Nation 0.91
3 FaZe Clan 0.93 FaZe Clan 0.91 Rise Nation 0.94 FaZe Clan 0.91
4 Team EnVyUs 0.98 compLexity Gaming 0.93 H2K 0.96 H2K 0.91
5 compLexity Gaming 0.98 LuminosityGG 0.98 Dream Team eSports 0.99 Team eLevate 0.96
6 Team eLevate 1 Team EnVyUs 1.01 Team EnVyUs 1 Counter Logic Gaming 0.99
7 H2K 1.02 Team SoloMid 1.01 LuminosityGG 1.01 LuminosityGG 1.02
8 LuminosityGG 1.02 Dream Team eSports 1.03 Team eLevate 1.03 Team Kaliber 1.03
9 Counter Logic Gaming 1.03 Rise Nation 1.03 Team SoloMid 1.07 compLexity Gaming 1.04
10 Team Kaliber 1.06 Counter Logic Gaming 1.07 Team Kaliber 1.07 Dream Team eSports 1.07
11 Dream Team eSports 1.07 H2K 1.13 Counter Logic Gaming 1.08 Team SoloMid 1.08
12 Team SoloMid 1.09 Team Kaliber 1.16 compLexity Gaming 1.1 Team EnVyUs 1.1
Concerns and questions
Why not just do a raw number of kills over number of deaths calculation? Isn't that the best calculation?
The short answer is no, if you're interested in finding true trends within the noise. When a player sits down to play a game, the K/D they end up with is going to vary depending on a number of factors. These factors can range from obvious ones such as the team they play against to obscure ones such as how much sleep they got the last night. For this reason, a raw K/D calculation is not a pure calculation of the player's K/D potential. A raw K/D calculation is in fact a K/D estimate, one that ignores all of the other factors that could distort the performance of the player while hoping that all of those factors even out over time.
So then why is your model so great? Did you film all of the pros sleeping to track the amount of sleep that they got the night before?
Clearly some factors that distort a player's K/D are not possible to account for, for practical reasons. What my model does do is account for the team that a player plays against.
I see. So you're just making up team values from opinion because you hate Optic. Prepare to be downvoted.
No, I'm not. The team multipliers are calculated from the data itself, and require no input from me. The algorithm I designed has only one "best answer" for the tables above, which includes both the K/Ds and the team K/D multipliers. If you were to change any of the values above, you would get a more unfavorable "entropy" value, which means that it wouldn't reflect what is going on in the data as well as the best answer.
All the teams play the other teams the same amount of times in the CWL, so I don't need your voodoo magic.
This statement isn't completely false, so let's examine it. Assuming that every player gets to play every game, K/Ds for individual game modes from a raw calculation will approximate the true value just about as well as mine do.
However, this is not true for an overall K/D, or for game mode K/D in the case that a full series in not played. For example, even if a player gets to play every game, a raw overall K/D calculation has no way of controlling for a player whose team 3-0'ed everyone and a player whose team went to map 5 every game. One of them will have played 0 CTFs and half as many SNDs as the other. You would also expect a good team to go to map 5 more often against a good team than it would a bad team. My Full Series K/D alleviates all of these concerns.
Most importantly for all of the K/Ds, it is true that players miss games and new players join teams after games have already been played. A raw K/D will be distorted by this, but my model will not be since it accounts for how K/Ds vary between opponents. My model also weights observations by how long the player was actually in the game, so a player who was dropped out of a game will not be punished for it.
Last time your Overall K/D was just an average of the 4 modes. Is that true again?
No, this one is called a Full Series K/D, and is calculated as explained above. When I posted the last data set, I was just using that column to show how a player's K/D compared across different game modes. Everyone blew up on me because they thought I was trying to pass it off as the classic total number of kills total number of death K/D that they're used to. Since that type of statistic was in high demand, I went back to the drawing board and have now given everyone a statistic of that nature that is superior to raw K/D due to the corrections mentioned above.
Why doesn't the K/D average to 1 in each column?
To put it plainly, because it would make the prediction of everyone's K/D more inaccurate. In statistics, we call this the bias-variance tradeoff. Remember the discussion above of how a player's K/D during any given game changes based on a bunch of factors, so we don't know whether the player's performance itself was a bit higher or a bit lower than their true skill. In other words, we are estimating from imperfect data, so we cannot expect a perfect answer. Because of this, the best imperfect answer may very well have what is called bias. It seems counterintuitve to think that you can get a more accurate answer for all of the players' K/Ds while having them not average to 1, but it is a reality when you take into account that their gameday K/D was their actual K/D mixed with noise, and we are only getting the best answer for each player, not a perfect one. Read 4.1 from the link below for a description of this phenomenon.
Please do understand that if a raw K/D value was the best one, the model would have converged to team values of 1 across the board and the K/Ds above would have been equivalent to a raw K/D. The raw K/D model is actually the starting point and the team values (and in tandem the K/Ds) will only change to ones that reduce the error across the board.
I still don't like you because I think you're an asshole and you sound like a know-it-all.
I appreciate it.
submitted by alexman93 to CoDCompetitive

Group Rewatch of 2019 - the first arc: 1.01 to 1.13 up to the little hiccup of Anslo Garrick

So, we need a little steam, so find the rewatch master thread here. Have at it. This are my own impressions.
1.01 Ranzo Zamani
The introductory episode featured little ballerina Bethany Ryker in danger because of the actions of her father as a NATO officer, because of who her father was. But also about revenge, failing justice, for Zamani’s children: “This is about much more than one girl. This is about the children.” A theme.
Protecting and avenging children, and the danger they face because of actions of their parents. As Liz would say in season 2: “the sins of the fathers”, a phrase also used in season 3 ("For I, the Lord thy God, am a jealous God, visiting the iniquities of the fathers upon the children"). While on the other hand Red is said to have abandoned his wife and daughter, a fact Liz highlights for us twice. Liz's father is said to have been a criminal who abandoned her.
Bethany had a photo in a nightgown of the same design as Liz would have been in the fire, something a season and a half ahead.
We have 5 instances of father stories:
  1. General Ryker, whose job put his child in jeopardy;
  2. Zamani, whose children died because of Ryker’s actions;
  3. Reddington, who abandoned his wife and daughter;
  4. Sam as an adoptive father; inc. the confusion about Liz having at least 2 fathers when Ressler thinks the criminal father is him.
  5. Liz’s career criminal father who abandoned her.
It also introduced the identity theme, in the form of the aliases as in the briefcase of aliases Red uses, the one he gave Zamani, and the passports Liz finds in Tom’s box.
We have our first fake death, as Zamani was presumed dead, and or first doppelgänger or double, this one an electronic version off it when Red puts his tracker into Zamani’s pocket.
The apple theme is present in the T-shirt that first Liz and then Tom wears. Red makes his first comment about hair as soon as he meets Liz.
We have flags in 3 occasions right behind Red, and Red’s progression towards the FBI are notable: in front of the building, facing it, his home, as Phillips remarks, kneeling over the seal, under the seal in the commanding position of the table at the end. Cooper has a pin, Liz has a pin.
There are a lot of moments highlighted with Cooper. I feel Cooper knows exactly that this man is RR, he knows who Elizabeth Keen is when Ressler asks who is Keen, and Cooper has 2 moments in which he is seeing Red interacting with Liz and smiles: when he is teaching her to think like a criminal, when he tells Liz to find the Innkeeper. And there is a highlighted moment with a sticky note reading “ordered June 27″
Liz rubs the scar when she is nervous and specially when Red says that they will be a distraction and they will “grab the girl”. A foreshadowing of the abduction (s) in 1991?
I noticed the first of three people wearing a mustard jacket: Tom and Dom (both young Dom and present time Dom) and the stranger is also wearing a mustard coat in suede, not corduroy.
When Red puts the tracker Zamani, they also look similar from behind, both balding, but Zamani’s coat has a belt, Red’s has not. This will go to the fire recall in which the tall blonder man has a belted coat, and the man in the hat has not.
Newton Phillips has a very military bearing. He carries Red’s bag (the bagman in the British Army), he addresses him as “Sir”, and he calls the FBI Red’s home, but was not in Red’s inner circle of trust.
It is a very packed episode that basically lays out themes, symbols, and stories, including Red’s first charade, as involving the FBI guaranteed the procedures they would follow in moving the girl to safety, which was the best chance to grab the girl.
1.02 The Freelancer
This is the second charade Red designs. He waits for a case of The Freelancer to hire him under the guise of learning the hit, when he was setting the hit, and the payment in his hat was for the hit, in order to kill Floriana himself.
This is the first shapeshifter, a bad person appearing to be bad, likely a contrast to Red who seems to be bad but also does good.
Red tells Liz that all about her is a lie, and phrases a suggestion to end up in “You can be my daughter” the first time Red would use that phrase even if he denies being Liz’s father. Liz hits the Freelancer with a car and seems quite pleased of her handiwork and she trusts Red with the information about Tom’s box. She is lying to the FBI already, quite easily.
Meera is the CIA, attractive but treacherous would take a special significance as we meet Peter Kotsiopolus, and as the CIA first says Katarina was a myth, then accepts she existed, and then it turned out they had a person who investigated her, and they had also investigated her father, but not that closely.
In the next block of episodes Red, after getting started and disposing of Floriana Campo, gets to the business of identifying Berlin, via one of Berlin’s trackers, Lucy Brooks AKA Jolene Parker, who used the Alchemist to fake her death when Red wised up to her.

1.03 Wujing
We have now learned that Red had been steering Liz’s life towards the FBI, and he also hired Tom to protect her, something that backfired. In this episode Red thrust Liz into a dangerous circumstance, more training for her. Time to take the training wheels off. Red is peeling back the protective layers he had erected around her as a child to keep her safe. Now is time for her to be trained in the dangers she will face as we see Liz saying about Agnes in season 6.
Under cover, they rely on each other to read complex signals. He has begun to teach her to think like a criminal, to improvise, and to keep secrets (advises not to tell Cooper about Tom’s box & not to tell Tom).
We continue with the theme of children in danger because of who their parents are, this case is a formerly honest architect who gets tapped to spy in the country of his ancestors, resulting in his child being in danger. Now translate to Rostov, Russia, and Liz. Also Red having a mother with Russian origins. Meera gets schooled in the tech stuff by a Chinese American tech to spy on a Chinese spy-killer hunting a Chinese-American firmer honest businessman now a de-facto spy.
This is the first appendage cut, the hand of the dead CIA agent. The countdown started in 1.01 is now under way.
And Red explains his philosophy: “We do it for real, or we don’t do it at all” and his directive to what is important to him about Liz: **“I believe I will always do whatever I feel I have to do to keep you alive*.”* That eclipses even the truth if need be, in my opinion. The line about doing it fore real and the chase that happens afterwards, they trying to save the agents and the bad guys trying to save them will come back in Tom giving the list to Fake Berlin, but somehow Fitch knowing about it.
if he needed to be a criminal, appearing to be a criminal did not cut it. He had to become a criminal, even though that is not who he is. He does it for real.
The first cryptic conversation about Liz’s father:
Because of your father.
I wish the answer were as simple as the question seems. But the truth is, the question isn’t simple, either. I share your frustration.
As a u/wolfbysilverstream commented, this does not fit at all with Dom’s tale in Rassvet. It should have been "because of your mother", and the “I have you” does not fit with a protector.
This is the first time Red quite literally steps in front of Liz to protect her with his life. As we get to season 6 we have learned that Red has been protecting and directing Liz’s life, preparing her for what she will have to face, cobbling a fabulous fortune for her, and yet at death door, he told Liz that his own mother would have known she would be ok because she had people who loved her.
We also have the second apple in the apple theme in the form of apple man, the notion that people are always watching,
I think that Red always had planned to do this. Tom was the precipitating factor when Red's plan to hire a minder backfired when he failed to consider that he should have asked for something different than a straight man of the appropriate age who predictably fell for the daughter of a famous honey trap. He had trained her for the life that was hers since she was born. But he never told this to Kate or even to Dom, who accuses of not being able to stay away from her.
1.04 The Stewmaker
A happenstance of a case Liz was a profiler in. The fact that Berlin knew what the particular photo was and that Red was able to trace it means that The Stewmaker's mementos were known to people. In particular that Berlin, still in the USSR, knew what getting that picture meant, means inexorably that Stanley Cornish or whatever his name really was, was a cleaner for the Soviet regime, whose Memento Morti would be known to the apparatchik. Berlin got the picture of his daughter and knew what had happened to her, and then bones appeared, he believed they were of his daughter.
I remain convinced in this rewatch that the parable of the farmer is about Cornish. Cornish seems to have married late because he has a young son, which gives him time to have had another family who disappeared or was murdered. So, that first family could have been Stanley first family in the USSR. When they were killed, he became a cleaner, as Liz suggest something horrible happened to him, something he was trying to dissolve like his past:
You know what I think? I think this idea of you vanishing people to aid nature is a lie. I think you’re trying to dissolve something else. Your past, maybe? Whatever the horrible thing was that twisted you up inside and made you into the freak that you are!
and then she tells Red that Cornish could not have helped becoming who he is: No, Red. He couldn’t help it.
When Liz had asked about Cornish being a father, he stopped, and went to the jars of teeth as if to soothe himself, and it took him a while to remember about his new son: My son. He’s 11. I married late.
And the parable is about Cornish:
everything that gives meaning to his life is gone. … Everything that he loved, taken from him. His children. … A life’s work erupts from his knotted mind.
Cornish has a record player, and musical instruments including players are symbols of grief and loss.
Red calls Liz sweetheart, and she did not like it. Princess, sweetheart, etc, are not things Liz likes to be called. The first chronological instance is the man who puts her in the closet, which will be seen a season and a half from this.
Sweetheart, not really the most convenient time for me.
I don’t give a rat’s ass. Where are you?
This is the second instance of a moment that we know was off camera but have indications it was there. The first is Liz doing the logical thing, a DNA test, which I was able to piece together in 2015 when I examine her flip-flops, and the conversation with Stanley is the second because we take Liz’s view and she faints for a portion of it. When we come back Cornish is tied by the tub and Red had injected him with the same substance. The third needle in the neck we have had:
  1. Liz stabs Red in the neck with a pen in 1.01
  2. Liz performs a tracheotomy to Floriana with a pen in 1.02
  3. Liz gets an injection of the neck in 1.04 and then Stanley gets one too.
this episode also has the second Christmas reference, besides Red disappearing on Christmas Eve 1990 in 1.01: I’d say my meeting with Lorca might be the equivalent of you falling on your ass and landing in a pile of Christmas.
All that Christmas stuff, and Red telling Liz she is a Winter, not an Autumn, makes me think, what if Liz was born around Christmas?
This time is Ressler who gets thrown in the deep ed of the pool to see if he swims when he insists on going to Lorca with Red. Red also gives us indication of what to avoid in solving the puzzle: emotions blind us:
You let your emotions get the best of you, which is how people wind up in jail, Hector. Stupid people. I need the name and location of the man holding Elizabeth Keen.
Lorca: Are you sure it is not you who’s acting on emotion? It sounds personal.
Red will always use the truth, hidden in the lies: it is personal You got me. It is personal. I want your man. and when Lorca calls him on it, he accepts that part with a truth: it is personal (because he cares for Liz) and he wants The Stewmaker. And he creates a plausible explanation, an alternative history for what he wants: So let me spell it out for you. You get away. Agent Ressler here saves Agent Keen. He looks good.
This is the first teeth and dentistry theme in the show: Cornish is a dentist, and he keeps teeth in jars. And the first time a communication system is set through a PO Box rented under an alias. The second one would be The Travel Agency and the third would be how Lena and Dom communicate.
Also gives us the extent to which Liz can fool Tom who believes he can read Liz: Nice try. But I always know when you’re lying. Nothing is obvious about Liz.
I also think it has the first rule for solving the puzzle given to us: When confronting complex equations, the simplest solution is most often the correct one.
There may be complicated circumstances, but the story will be simple.
The next batch of episodes is one instance in which Red deviates from the plan of finding Berlin. He could have by using Seth’s favor, and end it all before it even began, but instead, despite his admonition to Lorca, he uses it to enlighten Liz on the gun found in Tom’s box. His anger about Tom, his worry about Liz overtakes finding Berlin. He also tries by pointing out Gina as Tom’s lover (which was not true anymore as Tom ditched Gina for Liz as we find out in season 3). This lands him having to do damage control as Tom outmaneuvers him on this round, and he wasted time by having to use Frederick Barnes and General Ludd as trading cards to get talking to Liz again and look at the ViCAP number for Lucy Brooks).
In this batch I think he is tying up lose ends by killing Sam, who sick and facing death is considering spilling secrets, which will come back in Samar and her dementia; and in blowing up a house.
It is interesting that so far we have seen Luli and Newton do not know the whole truth. Newton had no idea who Liz was, and Luli did not know why was Red buying that house. Kate I think also did not know Red’s relationship to Liz.
I personally think Red was eliminating anything and anyone who could tell Liz anything before he was ready to do it himself. Like Liz remembering the swing in The Summer Palace in season 4, and the 20 steps to the sand in the Reddington's burnt beach house in season 6.
1.05 The Courier and the first important sibling story.
In Wujing we saw a second child who is invisible. Wujing sibling made him a secret, given away, become invisible. In The Courier the sibling story is that of an abusive father, whose son has a innate condition that makes controlling him impossible through pain. The brothers remain close. Think Red and his moralistic father who excommunicated him because Red acted out. Red who idolized outlaws. Did he have a brother that remained in contact with him, besides his mother who understood him, but who passed away at an unspecified time by 2016? This theme will come back in 11 siblings stories, nine of them about brothers.
  1. The Courier: An abusive father, who cannot control a wayward child via pain, because he cannot feel it, resort to brutality. The child grows up to be a criminal, but still cares about his little brother.
  2. Mako Tanida: and his brother, killed by a cop and his identity stolen to run his empire.
  3. The Pavlovitch brothers, a band of mercenaries;
  4. The Mombassa Cartel: had a secret family and within that secret family a secret son,
  5. Earl King: two brothers compete for the tight to live and the family fortune as their father watched.
  6. Quong Zhang: and the ghost brother who haunted him after dying in a fire.
  7. Lady Ambrosia: and her two sons, the “perfect"one dying, the "imperfect” living;
  8. Russian Dennison: had a brother who died.
  9. The Djinn: a father whose eldest son did not conform to his expectation takes drastic measures to sideline him, effectively eliminating him as a son.
  10. Lord Baltimore: who killed her good sister who was not abused.
  11. Zal Bin Hasaan: Samar and her brother Shahim, presumed dead and in reality becoming a criminal, a terrorist under a different name
I do wonder if The Stranger would end up being Red’s brother, I got that feeling from them.
It is the first time we hear about rabbits. In 1.09 Liz finds the rabbit in a box of things from Sam’s house, and the rabbit references will trickle down:
This is hilarious. Fredrick wrote to the editor of the Washington Post almost every day thank you about any and every subject. Listen to this one. “Dear Mr. Bradley, what is up with all the rabbits”
And finally Red would not take from many people yanking a paper off his hands. Liz, however by now must have received the test result about the DNA test and throws it out without seeing it.
1.06 Gina Zanetakos
Tom played this round masterfully: upon finding out Liz found his box, he dons a plaid shirt, and bets the double wide as Brimley would put it. Meanwhile Red gives Liz his former girlfriend, except that Gina had it for Liz.
That scene where he says in an almost empty room “that’s my girl” sealed it for me. Only Newton is there, that was no show for anyone. Add the scenes with Dom and it is clear to me.
While I do not doubt Red and Tom are playing a f*ck you game, I felt that when Red said Gina was Tom’s lover, there was a “I’ve been there” look in his eyes, that then goes into telling her she is chest deep in filth, telling her that “I understand what it’s like to be drawn to something that is unhealthy, to a part of yourself that you are afraid of. But I want you to remember what your life really was with him, and imagine all that it could be without him.” and he thinks Liz and Tom are playing house in 2.08 and was horrified to find the chains. I feel he gave Katarina a chance and paid for it dearly. As when he consoles Liz in 2.08: “When you love someone, you have no control. That’s what love is: Being powerless.
The guy Tom “recognizes”, however is Newton Phillips in a meeting with Fokin, so I am not entirely sure what happened there. Was Tom an innocent victim in this? Was he placing the blame on Red? Was Newton to blame for this?
Or was Tom there for a CIA mission, like when he went for his “bachelor party” to Vegas? or as we learn in Redemption that in 2012 Tom was hired by the CIA to hunt a former agent who had begun to kidnap his own and extract secrets to sell?
Was he hired to protect or to kill Fokin? Why would the cartridges have Gina’s prints? He would have cleaned the gun but why on earth would he have kept a gun used in an assassination of a Russian defector? He had a small arsenal in his hideout. It had to be that he did not know the gun was used, which means he is not the guy who killed Fokin. On the other hand Gina was surveilling Fokin, and this murder had suspected connections to an unsanctioned double agent.
Tom’s identity was able to withstand at least 2 full blown investigations on season 1: one on this episode, and again in 1.22 when he was part of the scene of a crime investigation. None of them seemed to stick, his cover held tight, his prints were like teflon. He got a teaching job in season 3 which Red took away, and then again in season 4 when he gets called to NYC for a reading of his father’s will.
Meera Malik, a retired CIA covert agent with experienced in enhanced interrogation does not get anything strange. But then we have to add that Tom did work for the CIA at least sometimes, as a freelancer, and then when he gives the list to Fake Berlin, almost immediately Fitch knew about the task at risk, when only Tom, Fake Berlin and Fake Berlin’s assassin would know about it, and Fitch took a very short time learning Fake Berlin’s location, unless he already knew it. (”we do it for real or not at all” & “the race begins .We try to save him. They try to kill him.”)
Tom’s prints had a permanent and very professional scrub. They never signaled anything, not even in his hideout. So all in all I think that Gina had been hired to kill Fokin which is why she had a picture of him, and Tom had been hired to protect him, and somehow Tom ended up with that gun, not knowing it had been used to kill Fokin.
1.07 Frederick Barnes
A father story, one in which he tries to save his son, and a very clear parallels as u/Desdemona1231 and u/J-Kaz with a modest contribution from yours truly:
A father, who has to see his bio child being raised in a marriage that he’s not a part of, would burn down the world for his child, become a criminal to try to save the child’s life.
both men described as rising stars and lover of puzzles:
He [Barnes] was brilliant, ahead of his time. He he was a rising star at at work.
Reddington was once a rising star at the Pentagon
First memory of Bubble girl, in the Tacoma Park house. The hidden growth chart has to be for a hidden child, the child he remembers in that house. . But he seems to have found those home movies in the cabin he takes Carla in 2.03/04 because in 2.05 he is splicing them together. So the cabin and the Takoma Park house are both tied to Red and tied to Bubble girl, and the implication is that Liz is bubble girl. So, if this is true, Liz visited that house and the cabin likely. Is the first time we hear about puzzles:
Every research problem was like a puzzle that he had to solve
Borakove, I hate sarcasm and I love puzzles.
I find interesting this is the first time Red actually gets angry at Liz, hanging the phone at her: I’m not a gumball machine, Lizzy. You don’t get to just twist the handle whenever you want a treat
And as we go along this was answered:
Say what you will about Frederick, but someone who’s willing to burn the world down to protect the one person they care about, that’s a man I understand.
Is that meant to be directed at me?
Aren’t you presumptuous?
but in season 6:
All those years spent worrying about you, fancying myself your guardian angel she would’ve taken one look at you and known you’d be fine.
1.08 General Ludd
After blowing up the house, Red goes to the hospital where Sam is. He is appalled that Liz is not hurrying to Sam’s side. For all Liz professes to care, I find her very detached.
Sam also has a look of fear about him when he first sees Red. I think this has to do with his want to tell Liz, and Tom rush to get there, ahead of Liz. I think Sam called Tom wanting to tell him, and is now feeling guilty. The proof for me is that Red hangs around, way more than an hour, because Sam is discovered one hour after he died, and when Tom arrives they already know Sam is dead. So Red knew that Tom was coming and waited for him, giving me the idea that Sam confessed to calling Tom. I still maintain that Red and Sam agree that Red would kill him, spare him the pain, and Red would ensure Sam did not say anything under pain killers, bringing me back to Samar and her dementia.
I think the woman they are talking about is Katarina, I have always been convinced about it, way before we knew there was any connection between Sam and Katarina: Oh, my God. I’ve never been more scared of a woman in my life. She was thrilling in bed. What a pair of legs. I think she played field hockey in college.
Red promises Sam: You will always be her father, Sam. I can only hope to love her and protect her as you would have. He cannot ever say he is her father, because Sam is. He can and says Liz is his daughter, but not that he is her father.
Red also willingly takes Luz to Maltz when he could have given her the new name. And he even asks in front of Liz: what other secrets have you just given away?.. Who knows about the work I’ve had done?
And Maltz talks about elasticity, so it would seem Maltz worked on Red’s burns: Ray, look at you. You look great. I mean, the elasticity is amazing. You been juicing?
Red basically tells Tom that he is Liz’s father: But I’m sure she’ll be fine. He’ll always be there with her, standing in the shadows to keep her safe. Laughing with her in the light. Watching through her eyes all those who get close. He’ll always be there. She will be fine.
By having surrendered to the FBI the cabal is nervous. Peter and Fitch are on opposing ends: Fitch is really protecting Red, holding the others back, convincing them Red had the fulcrum, while Peter is waiting to get rid of Red and Fitch and go back to the Cold War.
These episodes are a big disruption in Red’s plan. He no longer feels safe in the Post Office, he gets Liz in contact with Kate, risking her remembering things, and he has to kill everyone who knew he had been taken from the Post Office, meaning that they knew he is working with the FBI.
1.09/1.10 Anslo Garrick
The information about the attack that allowed Resselr and Cooper to believe it was real was given through Meera Malik: My contacts at the CIA were sitting on an Egyptian sleeper cell.
We meet Kate, and who she was should have been clear in her handbag, reminiscent of Mary Poppins's.
Another character we meet was Alan Fitch, as he appears first interrogating Red, wearing a maroon scarf and double plaid. Fitch knew Red as Raymond and calls him Ray. They refer to a last meeting 20 years prior, in 1994.
Fitch was protecting Red, regardless of what it looks like in that first scene. I have always found useful to watch all the scenes he is in in succession, skipping stuff unrelated. Remembering people were always watching. Compare that scene with this: Listen to me, Ray. I don’t know how much time we have, so you need to pay attention. I’ve been able to hold everyone off, convince them that it’s in their best interests to let you live; with the call: I want this mess cleaned up. Get rid of him or ruin him. Just get it done by Christmas, and the comic book in which Red is at Fitch tombstone with a photo of Liz.
Fitch was keeping the cabal off Red, without really knowing if Red had the fulcrum. There were 2 versions of Fitch: the public persona, in which he appears to be Red’s enemy barely held ack by the fulcrum, and the private, “safe” persona, in which he is holding back the cabal to protect Red. He created the fulcrum, which had the power to destroy the cabal, so, his intent was to use the cabal to end the Cold War, then destroy the cabal, but with the Bubble Memory missing that was not possible. Peter’s faction wanted to go back to the Cold War, finding it kept the world more stable. see the letter
Anslo was another one of the failed executions by Red, because of a betrayal.
Cooper, once more demonstrating he has a shared history with Red believes Red immediately: Harold, do not make a stand. Get your people the hell out of here.
Anslo is the first one who tells Red: As with everything involving you, things are more complicated than they may appear.
and then Marvin says the same thing: And now you’re gonna start in with me about how, oh, with you, there’s always more than meets the eye.
The FBI confirms Red was there because f the blood, which tells us they had a way to identify the man who surrendered in 2013, and confirmed he was there. It does not mean they would have submitted it to CODIS, because he did not meet the requirement and was a confidential informant. So, at this time
  • Cooper knows there is a piece of evidence in the form of a bloody shirt in an evidence locker with the DNA of the man he knew from before 1987, rescued from a torture situation. The man who the US Navy knew as Raymond Reddington. He does not go for it when Red surrenders, he just says” “It really is him
  • The FBI has blood from Red from the time he surrenders to the FBI in 2013.
  • Liz had taken his scotch glass in 1.02 and likely by now has received the sealed envelope and destroyed it, afraid to find out the devil was her father
At the end of it Liz asks Red is he is her father. After a really long pause he denies it. But:
  • 1.02 Red tells Liz she can be his daughter
  • 1.06 Red says: “That’s my girl” in an almost empty room about Liz.
  • 1.08 Red kills Sam after telling him: ”You will always be her father, Sam. I can only hope to love her and protect her as you would have.”
  • 1.09/1.10 Red denies being her father, after a long pause.
  • 1.22 Red declines to answer the same question because he killed Sam to prevent her from knowing the identity of her father.
  • 4.08 Red accepts that “Elizabeth is my daughter
  • 4.22 Red does not deny being her father when confronted by paternity test between two subjects, both unidentified in the report, as Cooper would not have put that out there.
  • 5.02 Red asks Liz: “Because you’re my daughter?”
  • 6.12 faced with imminent death, Red tells Liz about his own parents and how his mother would have known Liz would be all right, and not because his protecting her or the forture amassed for her.
1.11 The Good Samaritan Killer
The Marnie Peterson story should be true. He was planning to kill Fyodor, so there was no object in lying: The first time I ever smoked a cigar was with Marnie Petersen in fifth grade. Funny, little, bat-faced girl.
Aram, in the first open parallel to Red, gets set up with a false name and accounts open for him: : It’s an alias, for you. Someone is attempting to implicate you as a mole by creating a money trail that leads directly to you. You’re obviously far too clever to have accepted payment that was so easily traceable.
We have the first domestic violence in an abusive parent and Liz’s reactions to it. There is definitely something about domestic violence that affected Red, Liz, Katarina (in Rassvet) and Kate (n Requiem).
Liz asks if he is back and what did he bring her. Feels like such a daughter comment to ask daddy what did he bring her, like when he brought her the guava pastry.
1.12 The Alchemist
DOUBLES: This is the first episode that deals with the idea and identification with DNA and teeth. The theme was briefly introduced with the electronic doppelgänger in the form of the tracker in Zamani’s pocket, but this is the first serious look at someone who creates a double.
Two bodies at the wife’s house– a woman and a girl– doubles for his family.
The doppelgängers did not have to be perfect, he chose people whose facial features were similar enough, that with the teeth fixed and DNA introduced the normal DNA identification procedures would fool the “experts”.
But The Alchemist could NOT change DNA, he could fool experts until they went in the bone marrow and extracted DNA. That is why it was introduced just before the doubles were killed, usually with disfigured faces, or burned bodies, so the ID was done by perfunctory margins of error in the teeth, and general appearance of hair style and color. There would not be much less of bodies after a plane crash. Reddington said these people were gonna disappear. Now they’re burned beyond recognition.
So they would be forced to rely on teeth or DNA.
We got the autopsy results back for the male victim on the plane. The dental plates pulled by the ME were within the margin of error– not perfect, but close enough to determine a match. Then, when they inspected the teeth themselves, they found they’d been altered…. His teeth had been surgically replaced, some of them filed, modified.
The Alchemist knew that, based on a forensic procedure, we wouldn’t run tests necessary to distinguish between synthesized and natural DNA. Now that we know what we’re looking for, we pulled the bone-marrow sample, ran it against our database.
Teeth are also prominent: in
  • Quong Zhang and The Alchemist had altered teeth, included implanted teeth,
  • Carla Reddington has a tooth extracted by Berlin, Red says dentistry makes him quasy;
  • Jasper is threatened with extracting all his teeth,
  • The Stewmaker collected teeth,
  • Nik said that Pete said that he had extracted DNA from the skeleton, from a tooth
Borakove solves the puzzle with technology: It scans the fragments and treats each scrap as if it were part of a huge jigsaw puzzle
It’s all just pieces of a much larger puzzle, and until all the pieces are laying in front of you, it won’t go together
Haskell’s quite a puzzle man. ... He’s found a way to read between the lines.
Red has a puzzle in his Bethesda apartment, and he solves the white puzzle in season 4; Tom finds a Rubik cube in a drawer, he incorporates in his cover to Asher Sutton: their lips are locked like a jigsaw puzzle; the 100th episode had a puzzle in the coins that had to be read together, and the Vesco one had another code to break, a form of puzzle. Red has a crossword puzzle in 1.01, refers to the plot of season 6 as a puzzle, Liz refers to his search for the traitor as “a puzzle he can’t solve.”
HAIR: Red makes the second of his hair obsession comments to compound the general true obsession with it:
  1. Agent Keen, what a pleasure…. You got rid of your highlights. You look much less Baltimore.
  2. You’ve changed your hair.
  3. You see, Borakove? You do have a head underneath all that hair
  4. Kate Ellison had blond hair and blue eyes
  5. If I was interested in having an affair, I’d find a man with hair.
  6. That guy over there Don’t look….With the hair.
  7. That stuff you use in your hair*– is that Brylcreem?
  8. Does that even look like real hair?
  9. Yasiel! God, that hair. Beautiful hair.
  10. Then Dolly goes in for hair plugs.
  11. I don’t care if you get fat. I don’t care if you lose your hair.
  12. I figured it out….What you’re doing. The hairline. Guys don’t get it– most women don’t care if men go bald.
  13. With the great teeth and that hair ...William Devane! It was William Devane with those marvelous teeth and that great hair! Ohh, I love William Devane.
  14. I must say, your hai, the way it frames your face is very becoming.
  15. I, uh, dyed my hair to hide.
  16. Nice hair.
  17. I pay you girls to dance, not stand in the back clucking like a bunch of hens in hair extensions.
  18. Not a Kleenex in the trash or a fingerprint in the barn or a hair in a drain.
  19. Says the man who never jaywalked. Or had a hair out of place or even a wrinkle in his suit.
  20. I’m told she’s a young woman, white, with red hair.
  21. It was a white woman. Dark hair.
  22. Red hair, green eyes, no heart.
  23. Maybe it’s the red hair.
We also have a line that is important, and the reason for abandoning Carla and Jennifer’s Reddington: Go back to the wife and daughter. He’s not alone anymore. You have to look to their lives in order to find him. They’re the ones that matter. They are his vulnerability.
1.13 The Cyprus Agency
This is the first time we meet Brimley, and his funny expressions: “Cleaner than a duck’s fart” and “don’t bet the double wide.” .
The way the cabal set things up was to get Diane to get Meera in, as a willing or unwilling mole. A second mole was created in the form of Aram right in the same form as the KGB set Reddington: with a fake account and money deposited in it. But Meera was a second tier patsy, as she is the one who signed the authorization to get the blueprints into Garrick’s hands.
So, when she realized this, she served Diane Fowler in a platter. I think her usefulness was done after her contacts were used to provide the intel to get Cooper to authorize bring ing Red into the Post office in 1.09. I have always suspected that Fake Berlin managed to kill her and only her, and injure Cooper just in time for the fake diagnosis to be done, which means that at that time, in 1.21/22 Andropov was already in the picture, even if we do not see him until 2.21, a full season later. With Cooper as a mole, Meera was a lose end.
Liz’s willingness and desire to have a child was already very thin. She was uninterested in talking to the adoption agency, skipping meetings and sonograms, and when she went to ask for free time, and Meera gets a admonition from Cooper about work being first, Liz just lets it go. Cooper will pay a high price for it later on as his wife was feeling second and always alone and had an affair with the neighbor that ended with the fake diagnosis. Lovely little ironies as Red says.
I think Liz was rethinking the whole thing, but definitely hearing about how Owen was “returned” was a key.
I was also struck by the Lassiters returning a difficult child who acted out, now knowing about Red being excommunicated by his father for being difficult and acting up, as well as Tom’s difficult childhood:
ABOUT OWEN: we knew Michael was troubled. But nothing could have prepared us for T-the therapist called it severe attachment disorder. Uh A-and there– there– there were many therapists, all kinds. We tried. I know– I know how that sounds. But– but when Michael began threatening to hurt himself and– and us, then the doctors stepped in and felt uh for, uh For Michael to return to foster care.
ABOUT TOM: I’m surprised you haven’t stolen more, considering the situation with your foster home. You know, we’ve been watching you, Jacob…. According to our research, you have some remarkable talents…. You ever stop to think that the reason you have trouble relating to other people is because you’re special? That it’s not you, it’s everyone else that’s the problem? …Good old social services Bureaucrats trained in missing the point. We believe that your delinquent inclinations are exactly what makes you invaluable. It takes a certain kind of courage.
ABOUT RED: I was a difficult child. People saw me one way I saw myself another. I felt misunderstood acted out. My father fancied himself a disciplinarian. Very moralistic. Instead of trying to understand me, he excommunicated me.
Liz was so uptight! that scene at the drug dealer was hilarious.
why there sooo many bad guys, usually the goons to help that have facial hair, especially goatees? does it all go back to the earliest one chronologically, the man in the fire?

edited for typos and to add link to master
submitted by TessaBissolli to TheBlackList

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