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A critical analysis of the franchise and BL3's reception

Greetings everyone.
I've been browsing this and other subreddits linked to the franchise for the last year since news and leaks started approaching BL3's release, mostly because I really like the series of games and it's concept and still consider it the best looter shooter in the industry because of it's lack of (heavy) monetization practises, quality&quantity content and good support after launch that combined surpasses it's competition tenfold. This is in no way trying to throw shade at all and just a means for you guys to understand how much I like this series and, because of that, how difficult it is to me to judge it as harshly as I'm about to do right now, but I feel like it the current state of the sub with it's complains and comparisons with BL3 and previous games aren't exactly accurate and sometimes going as far as omiting previously faulty design and writing mistakes in some cases, which leads to a certain bias in quite a few posts and arguments brought up here.
I will be looking at each game separately from what I think is the worst to finally what I think is the best game in the entire franchise, so we get more and more positive the longer this goes up. Of course, this is my opinion on the matter, so while I'm not gonna be putting "in my opinion...my thoughts on this are...I believe..." on every sentence, I feel it's pretty safe to asume this is mostly subjective and not an objective fact. This is going to be very long read, you guys can just go ahead and skip to Borderlands 3 or the conclusions if you don't like reading about how I point out things I didn't particularly liked about previous games, it's fine by me. Calling me out on things I have wrong/you think I got wrong/you disagree with, that's also perfectly fine to me.
So without further ado, let's get to it:
---Borderlands 1---
The almighty godfather, the originator, the light in the dark tunnel that inspired our further obsession down the loot hunt for a lot of us. A fairly decent, albeit incomplete and rushed prototype of something that could have been much more and which potential doesn't really quite reach the highs of what newer, more polished games have done and the reason why this is lowest on my personal list.
Gameplay has it's high and lows. On one hand I will argue that the guns have weight and look better than the ones in BL2, but unfortunately, it doesn't have the same amount of variety and sometimes it really feels like the manufacturers are just a different name with slighty different stats, they don't really stand out from one another with the exception of Maliwan, and that's mostly because of how broken and useful they are with it's elemental damage. The UI is clean, fast, and with some of the QoL improvements brought in the Enhanced edition, easier to navigate. I don't really miss the weapon mastery system, it felt like a grind and not something enjoyable if you didn't feel like using a specific weapon. Quests are for the most part awful and basically "go there kill X/find Y/collect Z" tier garbage that you see in your average online game without any of the flavor of the sequels, but I can admit they don't slow you down as future entries with long amounts of dialog, which to be honest, is basically their only strength.
The enemies and bosses are simple put, terrible or lacking in variety. There are some memorable encounters here and there that many of us still remember to this day, but I simply doubt it's for the quality of it and more for the unique kind of presentation that today is a staple of the franchise. Encounters like Mad Mel or Rakk Hive are clear examples of really, really bad or non-existent mechanics and poorly thought out bullet sponges that aren't really engaging or weren't really given the time to be more than that. The environments are also pretty dull and same-y, like, you see one, you have seen 80% pretty much most of what you will encounter for the rest of the game: arid wastelands, hills and abandoned buildings filled with bandits all around for the whole game. I’ve seen some people mention this gives the game a “Mad Max” feeling that they severely miss, but I think they did a great job in BL3 with keeping the aesthetics and identity of Pandora the same it was while giving that environmental variety to the other planets instead.
Story, characters and writing is overall pretty bland and not really well developed outside of Tannis echo log journey across the whole game. Unfortunately, while other fan favorites and recognizable faces that have become a staple of this franchise are introduced here, they aren't given enough time to really look that deep into them. The plot is a carrot on a stick with a series of Macguffins that aren't expanded upon until, again, the next games and the villain is laughlably undeveloped and barely in the story, to the point where the final encounter is something along the lines of "who is this chick...oh right, the hot echo gir-...oh welp, she dead" with probably the worst final boss in the entire series and leaves you hanging on the true identity of Angel and how is Hyperion involved in all of this, which is a result of a troubled/rushed development.
The playable cast and action skills were, in comparison to newer games, frankly underwhelming. Roland has 180º turret that if anyone looks at it funny it dies (it sucks) that at higher levels you mostly use for health and ammo regen, Brick has a Berserker rage melee override, which is fun at first but doesn't really scale all that well and has a lot of trouble with tougher and bigger enemies (so you're left with rocket/grenade/explosive builds), Lilith’s Phasewalk goes from completely worthless to a SANIC cheat mode, but you still basically play the same way from lvl 1 to lvl 69 (pick the strongest elemental smg and break everything) without changing the way your character plays in a very impactful manner (besides feeling like activating your cheat codes) and finally we have Mordecai, who is a pretty cool dude with a bird fetish that has both an effective sniper build and pistol/revolver one and is probably the best designed character in the game because of this, but has been surpassed by FL4K and his skill tree with "Rakk Attack", so he's (mostly) kinda obsolete in that regard.
The DLC is, quite frankly, low quality overall. Mad Moxxi Underdome has a (well deserved) reputation as arguarbly the worst DLC in the franchise for good reasons (poor content, high difficulty, lack of meaningful rewards, no story...), Ned Island is filled with incredible annoying zombies that slow you down and can drain your second wind meter and uninteresting, bland quests like "pick brains/collect eggs" which is par of the course for the absolute terrible quests this game has in general in a DLC that is already short (2-3 hours at most) and Robolution is mostly reused assets that you can clearly tell when they ran out of budget, because they have you fight the previous bosses (twice), even if the premise of meeting Mr Blake and the Hyperion Corporation seemed interesting at first. General Knoxx is the shinning light in this fiasco, but has some serious issues, like the level design consisting of mostly straight highways with no fast travel (which is also a major issue of all DLCs) and his boss fight being, just like almost every boss fight in this game, a really underwhelming reskin of previous armored Atlas soldiers you already faced. Overall though, the humor, the armory and the Cramerax challenge at the end make up for it, making it the first solid DLC in the franchise.
---Borderlands: The Presequel---
The black sheep of the franchise. The one game that made it's fanbase and content creators run away in fear because it had nothing to do, the one game Borderlands families tell their children bedtimes stories about so they go to sleep early, the game that could've been, but was not given a fair chance and support. Yet...is better or at least on par with the first game, in other words, is a pretty decent game. So what happened, what went wrong?
The gameplay is a mixed bag. Level design and environments are probably the worst part about this game, huge lands of really nothing to do and boring, grindy sidequests (remember the "collect 50 white guns"? I do) similar to how badly done they were in the first game and with the flaw of the modern games of huge, long winded moments where your character stands around with nothing to do. The UI is the same as BL2, likewise with the Badass system. This alongside the plenty amount of bugs, reused assets (with somehow even less guns than the previous game) and problem farming the guns at release made it one of the main flaws of the game as a whole. It felt like a big BL2 DLC and apparently that is what they had in mind at first, but a core of the audience couldn’t probably shake the fact that it seemed like cashgrab because of the popularity of the previous game.
Enemy variety in comparison to BL2/BL3 is very lacking, there is simple too many bandits and lost legion soldiers and too little robotic or eridian enemies, anything that will shake things up. However, it makes up a bit for it with it's stronger boss encounters in comparison to previous titles. They not only have a good entrance, but each of them have some kind of mechanic in their battles to shake things up and make them memorable and exciting, particularly “The Sentinel”, which if you ask me is still the best final boss in the series, to the point where I really didn't mind it was also the raid boss in a Pyro-Pete kind of fashion.
The only exception to this rule is the flying ship. It's unique for sure, but damn was that boss fight bad. Another good gameplay change it did great was the removal of slag (thank goodness) and it’s replacement “Cryo”, a much more fun, albeit fairly overpowered new elemental effect that freezes enemies and increases the damage you deal to them as well, making it the most effective one in the game. Also, the scaling of the enemies and weapons is more in line and not as overboard as BL2, with a fairly more enjoyable and well balanced UVHM than it's predecessor, even if the experience rate could (and should) have been way higher. This, alongside the new added verticality that the Ozkits provided, made it the best gameplay in the series...before BL3 came out and stole the spot by a landslide.
Story, characters, writing are overall an improvement compared to BL1 and we, the players, for the most part are more interested in the story because it can share some details about Jack and what made him lose his sanity, as well as reintroducing old beloved characters. The way it's presented as a flashback and the fact it's being told from Athena's point of view probably makes her the most attractive character to start with alongside Claptrap, considering the other two choices are canonically dead and evil/villains. It had some huge headscratchers for sure (how did Jack get the eye and when? Why did Athena just stand there when Lilith attacked Jack? Why didn't Lilith simply kill Jack instead of injuring him?...) and there are some chunks in the story that could've been presented better or gone by faster, but overall, it tried and setup a cool future conflict (albeit still a cliffhanger), which is more than I can say for the first game. Zarpedon is also a better main antagonist than Steele, she is more present than her across the entire game and we see her in a couple of side quests that give her more characterization, but overall she really isn't quite there yet with the likes of Jack or other Borderlands villains and feels like DLC character rather than a main game one.
The playable cast were a mixed bag. Some argue that these are still the best designed Vault Hunters (I respectfully disagree) in the franchise and others say that they rely too much on stacking mechanics, be it kill skills, elemental effects, etc. Claptrap is too unreliable, you sometimes won't get what you want and it can ruin the entire encounter and others it's still not strong enough, Aurelia's build variety is limited and a lot of her skill points are simply useless and wasted if you play solo (like Clappy) or simply don't like snipers, so she isn't for everyone. Nisha is a powerhouse, but she still can go down fairly quickly so it feels like a much more balanced Salvador in that regard, Athena is...okay, her maelstrom is pretty strong, but her action skill takes a lot to get used to and sometimes won't even work or deal substantial damage at all, Wilhelm is not nearly as bad as Axton or Roland thanks to the fact his turrets follow him around and increase his survivability as well as dealing more damage so he is more flexible and his middle tree is really impressive and I wish this "the more you go down a tree, the more your character changes" is something they will do for other characters and finally Jack/Timothy, who is not only strong, but you can build him however you want and still be incredible succesful at what you do regardless, so yeah, this I agree is a top tier designed character.
DLC wise, “The Holodome” is a complete disaster that rivals and may even be worse than Moxxi's DLC from BL1, with the only shinning beacon of hope being Gaige, Axton and Athena talking with each other. How could anyone expect that after such dumpster fire they would come out with arguarbly the best DLC in the entire franchise? But it happened. And that's what Claptastic Voyage was. Amazing environments, good villain, good weapons, good music, engaging quests, an extremely hard, but inmensively satisfying to beat final boss that is still to this day one of the best bosses in the franchise, even rivaling the best bosses in BL3, and a questline that answers what happened with Claptrap's product line, as well as directly linking with the beginning of the second game. Words alone can hardly tell how good this DLC is and is a shame that this game doesn't have a "start a VH at lvl 30" like BL2 because of this, which by the way I also miss in BL1 as well.
---Borderlands 2---
The magnum opus, the one game that catapulted Gearbox into fame and glory, a game that would make it so Gearbox could throw fists with other gaming giants and enter "Big Boy" clubs, an outstanding success where everyone no life-d this game for hours and showed their close to (or higher) thousands of hours as a badge of pride instead of shame like other unfortunate franchises out there. A very good, albeit not the perfect game people claim it as, let's look at it more closely.
The gameplay is an overall big improvement, although it hits some really big lows later on. Just from the first level you can see that they put more effort into the scenery and environments. There is still a fairly amount of road and arid wastes, caves, etc. but the variety is way better than 1 or TPS. Quests are also much more improved this time around and offer different, unique and amusing quests that don't fairly follow any kind of conventional rules, some are just joking around, others take a more serious tone, others are a parody of certain real life events...is kinda wild. The UI is, again, an improvement over BL1, still remaining fast, clean and simple, showing all skill trees at once and your character on the side. This game also introduces a new system called Badass Ranks, which is cool on paper, but the objectives that need to get to rank up are usually pretty annoying and not very fun for the most part, aside from the usual that you will get just by playing conventionally. The only downgrade I can think of is, well the guns. The sound design and the weight of the weapons really wasn't as tight as it's predecessor or his future succesor, to the point that it sometimes felt like they were barely better than peashooters, but this really wasn't the biggest issue of the game, since everything else was for the most part enjoyable enough that you could otherwise ignore or not be bothered by it too much.
Enemy variety in comparison to BL1 was an improvement in every way, it gave us not only the enemies from the first game with new additions, but also a new and fairly satisfying to beat enemy faction: Hyperion and it's loaders, which made corrosive weapons way more useful than in previous games. The bosses remained with their memorable entrance screen and some (albeit not all of them) used also fun mechanics that usually had something to do with the arena they were in, rather than their movesets themselves being interesting, so while lacking, they were still an improvement and it felt like they actually tried this time around. Except the Bunker. Gearbox, you really can't design a fun flying boss, my good men. Also, the Warrior, while better than the Destroyer from the first game, still falls short of what a final boss hyped as a “planet destroyecleanser” should be like, it’s a big disappointment.
So, this all seems pretty good, what’s the problem? You know it, the forbidden word: SLAG. And UVHM. And the terrible scaling past lvl50. And the godawful droprates. So, basically, the core gameplay after a certain point is awful.
I think everyone by now has heard time and time again how restrictive slag was and being forced to use it or have a weapon/gun that used it and swapping to another wasn't fun, how UVHM inflated enemy and armored pools so high that it made the previous weapon type mandatory and made it so you had to discard your weapons every other level because of how much damage a lvl51 did compared to a lvl50 and so on, and how little some trees or skills weren't really balanced well for this mode, which limited build variety, destroying some of them entirely. TVHM was were, gameplay wise, BL2 peaked. UVHM and the raise of the level cap from 50 to 72-80 destroyed and gutted the balance of the game, and made it a DPUH farmfest until the lvl cap were you could actually begin to farm in peace for your gear, even if you still had to worry about normal mobs two shotting you with a heavily defensive build, to the point where the best plan was to abuse health gate and shield regeneration and put almost everything in increasing damage, because your millions of health didn't really actually matter all that much.
A counterpoint some people will probably think is "well, you don't have to use DPUH!" but, if you didn't want to use slag, your choices were very limited, so it was the best choice for leveling, not only because it was a sure proof farm that anyone could get eventually by farming tokens in Torgue DLC or Savage Lee, but because it outshined everything or almost every other weapon you could find and you could get it fairly early too. Even if you used slag, the fact that it outshined everything else felt like you were just handicapping yourself if you didn't. BL2 was a game with millions of guns, were you were inclined to use just combinations of 1 (a tiny bit more if you include sandhawk, pimpernel, norfleet but yeah, you get the point) in the end game. That's not something small, that's some really, REALLY bad game design/balance and even to people who love the game I tell you this: you sadly can't defend this. Is a fixed state of the game past lvl 50 that sadly you can't simply go back or stop after a certain point and even if you can technically bypass it by certain skills or grenades, the fact that you have to micromanage around a gameplay mechanic that constantly dampers your ability to clear content is a bad state of affairs. Is sad that the more well thought out designed variety this had at release was destroyed by people who simply wanted more content without thinking about the consequences of what said farm and content would bring, but it is what it is.
Story, characters, writing...okay, this is gonna be a bit controversial, but I feel like I need to lead to it a bit. I don't doubt that anyone considers these to be stronger than it's predecessor and I would agree that is a stronger told story than BL1, TPS and BL3 for the most part, only second to Tales. They reintroduced previous playable characters and tried to spice them up a little bit, giving them roles into the story to play in the conflict with the main villain of the game and making it so that the previous game unsatisfying and abrupt ending made a bit more sense. And then comes Jack. Handsome Jack is probably one of my favorites videogame characters, not only because of this game, but because of what they build up on him with TPS, Tales and even the sidequest and DLC of BL3 about him and I will say that he just carries the game, BL2 wouldn't have been remembered half as fondly if another man other than Dameon Clarke voiced this man. Now...I don't think the writing in this game is great. I would argue that is not even good for that matter. If you read Jack's script, and most of the script as a whole, the whole thing is full of inconsistencies, flaws, plot holes or just downright dumb decisions that don't really make a lot of sense and you really, really have to suspense you disbelief.
Jack has the dialog that you would expect a 12 year old kid who thinks it's being funny or a young adult who read “Knowyourmeme” (although this feelslike the entire game as a whole sometimes, not just Jack) would write "hehe, buttstalion...piss for brains huh...dumb kiddo hehe..." that again, is being carried hard by Dameon Clarke's wonderful performance (that was also heavily ad-libbed by Anthony Burch admission), and the whole point of this is taunting you and playing with you so that you open up the shields on Sanctuary and he blows it up but...that's fucking dumb. They even make fun of this in Tales, where AI Jack is just like "yeah, shouldn't have brought my own competition to Pandora or have paid them instead to help me". Like, no shit. Any smart person doesn't throw a bunch of potential resources against you so that they kill your best man (Wilhelm) for a potential chance to wipe the Raiders. After that, the plot only progresses because of Angel trying to help you beat up Jack because he's bad and evil and kills people...and helps other glory seekers that have made their livings murdering other people, are cannibals or straight up psychos...see what I mean? It would make more sense if they were righteous like, let's say Maya, or are forced to be in that planet because reasons like Gaige, but when half the cast is like that, it raises an eyebrow or two. BL3 had critical points where the story needs our character to disappear from it, but the whole premise of the BL2 plot, right from the start, doesn't even make any sense because Jack acts like a total dumbass "Wow, I'm gonna create my own competition by putting adds all over the place only to kill them and the ones who actually survive will kill my best pal and right hand man only to have a chance to destroy the Crimson Raiders instead of just hiring them to defend my Eridium mines, sounds like a plan!". I know I reiterated this twice, but it's just SO DUMB it's insane.
There is also a couple of gameplay moments that disrupt the flow of the game like Sawtooth Cauldron when you can't just call brick so that it flies you up to the next area because...reasons? Or the fact Jack somehow just appears out of thin air, blows roland trained pectorals with a pistol (also kills him too, kinda sucks) and only Lilith runs up to him. Nobody shoots him, nobody goes after him, nobody moves. Canonically there are supposed to be 6 people in that room and none of them do anything for the next 20 seconds. This isn't Jack being too fast that it shocks them, this is Jack having plot armor. These are a couple of instances, but I think people get the point that, for a game that is hailed as having great characters, writing and story by the community, the last two fronts seem...quite lacking, average at best. BL2 has charming characters, staple characters, recognizable characters, but they are not really deep, meaningful, complex or well written outside of a couple of exceptions or, simply put, take a whole DLC to make them work (Tina Tiny had some potential, but is only fully realized with AoDK, for instance), merely following their archetype for the most part. Not saying that’s a flaw, just something that maybe shouldn’t be praised when is not entirely accurate.
In regards to the characters cast, I will say straight away that one of the main flaws of this game is that, while they're overall an improved cast, it feels like a lot of them aren't "complete" or nearly as fun or balanced until they get their first capstone. Zer0 is really frail (I’m not saying weak) all the way through the game even at the highest levels and a mosquito bite can make him go into second wind when he is outside his AS, so he’s not a beginner friendly class because it requires mastery and precision to make it work against pretty much everything. Maya had (still has) a lot of problems at release that were really apparent. Her red tree is infinitely superior to the other two (which are used mostly for support) since you have Acid Cloud and Ruin there, and her AS at lower levels is lacking. CC on an enemy when there are other 3-4 guys running around you and gunning you down and you might not even kill that one in time if it’s a badass? Yeah, that’s rough, she’s really rough until later on, when she becomes one of the best in the game. Krieg has some of the issues Zer0 suffers too, but not to the same degree. You can still break havoc if you pace yourself carefully and learn when to activate his AS, but you’re going to be downed too much otherwise. That’s it, until you get Release the Beast at lvl 31. That’s when you start feeling it and become a murder killing machine. Now…Krieg is not really well designed or should I say, he would have been a much better design choice for BL3, and that’s mostly because, if you want to play his other two trees (Hellborn/Bloodexplosion) you don’t really use your AS at all, so it’s a shame that a character's best build doesn’t use what makes him special in the first place. Axton is…Axton. He only really shines at higher levels when utility is more important than raw damage and you can get slag, turret length, explosions,etc. but overall, he’s mediocre. Salvador is broken, awful to play at low levels when you have no synergy in your two weapons and awful to play at high levels because you might as well headbutt the floor while playing with your feet if you still want some kind of satisfaction while clearing everything in the game. Now, Gaige is tricky, because she had the potential to be, easily, the best character in the game (by far) but…her middle tree doesn’t really scale well besides her capstone and Deathtrap scaling isn’t very good at higher than NVHM levels, which is a shame, because she’s probably the best designed character in the game. Impactful AS from lvl 5, high-risk, high reward playstyle with Anarchy on lvl6 and she once again changes styles completely in lvl 11 since…you can actually try to ricochet or use low accuracy guns with multiple pellets to play while shooting at walls or the floor…or you can just forget about that and focus on your pet entirely or build around a shock build. A shame about her faults that condition her into an Anarchy build. I would say that truly one of the best QoL things that happened in this game was the lvl 30 character creation that came with the Lilith DLC, it lessened the blow of those characters that really needed that first capstone and made replaying the game much more enjoyable, it really was a horrible experience with half of them before that (at least to me).
Now then, the DLC was overall, decent to great. Captain Scarlett, too many land, too little content, had it's fair share of annoying moments running hastily from one place of the map to other, then going back and forth, the biggest issue being with Herbert and it's long quest chain, to the point you are happy when he's finally gone. Still, Scarlett herself was a fairly entertaining villain, and the loot at the end of your journey made it somewhat worth it. Torgue is considered by many as an amazing dlc, mostly because of the humor, the new currency (mostly for the Harold, duh) and Bar farming that helped level up fast and while I agree with most points, I will also argue that the environments left a lot to be desired and felt like cut content from even BL1, the enemies were recycled and low effort, and the boss fights were mediocre to downright garbage (Badassasaurus, I'm looking at you). So in regards to the humor and characters, is top tier. In regards to the gameplay and combat…not so much.
Hammerlock Big Hunt was pretty bad at worst, mediocre at best. I still don't know what exactly went wrong in development, it has it's fair share of good ideas and some moments here and there where it clicks, but whoever was in charge of the gameplay, levels, bosses and enemies...wow, was it terrible. Nakayama was a fairly decent addition that was given more importance in later installments and his fight is one of the highlights of the game, but otherwise, I personally beat it once and never touched this DLC again, it’s just not worth it. Lilith DLC was fairly enjoyable as well, seeing Tales characters again, Hector was a decent antagonist, and setting up the next Borderlands game was exciting and it had decent amount of content (2 OP levels, 80 lvl cap, one more raid boss) with the best farming spot on the game (Uranus). However for some reason I can't shake the fact that it lacked something. Like, on paper it's a good dlc, but it just feels like it didn't hit any marks, like it's just...there. I don't agree with the poor reception that it got on sites like Steam (negatives) since it's, in the end, more Borderlands and the price seems fair, but I will just rank it alongside Scarlett, higher than Hammerlock and below Torgue.
Here it comes, the one you have been waiting for, Assault on Dragon Keep. It's amazing. It really, really does everything right and sets the standard for what a DLC should be in the industry and I would argue that it's better than other expansions for older and newer games. For 10 dollars. Not playing it as a Borderlands fan is a huge disservice, the only other DLC that I could see being on par is Claptastic Voyage, they're both around the same, even if I would still give Tina the edge, but yeah, those two are "la crème de la crème" of the whole series thus far. They actually put a whole DLC around a character who was very underutilized in the main story and used mostly for comedic purposes and not only does the setting work in it's own crazy unique way only Borderlands game manage to do, but it fits the character without feeling like they forced her in for fan service like what happened in the Torgue DLC. This is how you do a character centric add-on content.
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submitted by Ratcher4616 to Borderlands

Hardware Futurism

Watching the Hellblade II trailer for the zillionth time, I'm reminded of how far we've come. Dennard scaling or not, hardware is getting better at a ridiculous pace, and the future is packed with many possibilities. This post is a list of fundamental changes we might see over the next years; some are soon and inevitable, others are unlikely long-term wishes for twenty years out.
I've purposefully excluded some things from this list, like graphene computers, but I've certainly missed others, so feel free to add. An entry on this list is not an endorsement.

CPUs

Desktop CPUs have been pretty sameish since Itanium died, with the cool stuff like Denver not panning out, but we're seeing some disruption from AMD and Arm.

SMT4 (4 threads per core) goes mainstream

You're all presumably familiar with ‘8 core, 16 thread’ CPUs. SMT4 extends this to ‘8 core, 32 thread’. As cores get larger—and they will get larger—they have more spare throughput, so higher levels of SMT become more relevant. As thread counts increase, low-end CPUs might need higher SMT levels to reduce context switching overheads. There are unreliable rumours of AMD adding SMT4 to their server line a few generations out.

Higher core counts

Core counts have finally started rising again. Mobile has gone highly multicore, AMD has pushed it, and the 3990X has shattered the Overton window. Once programmers acclimatize, this growth will become self-fueling.

GPU-CPU convergence

People have been calling for CPUs and GPUs to merge almost since the GPU's inception. They might have been wrong about the timescale, but the general trend held true: GPUs have evolved into general-purpose SIMD processors, and CPUs have become manycores with fast SIMD. There are important advantages in specialization, but an eventual true hybrid is not yet out of the question.

Apple cores for laptop and desktop

Apple's phone and tablet CPUs are absurdly fast, going almost neck-to-neck with vastly higher clocked desktop chips at a fraction of the power and clocks. Rumours (and common sense) foretell Apple bringing these Arm cores to the rest of their lineup, shaking up the industry forever.

Other Arm chips get popular

Other Arm chips may not hit Apple's performance figures, but they are starting to compete in higher core count workloads, and on a fast pace of improvement. The small size of Arm's cores is great for making cheap manycore chips that still perform well, with the Graviton2, ThunderX3, and Ampere Altra, and the Snapdragon 8cx as an early entry to the laptop market.

Architecture

CPU architecture moves very hesitantly, but every now and again we see innovation.

RISC-V

RISC-V is an ‘open standard’ for a CPU instruction set and architecture that has gathered steam fairly quickly. It's unlikely to trade blows with x86 any time soon, but is making inroads in the embedded and coprocessor markets, and generally represents state-of-the-art among conservative ISA designs.

Arm SVE

SIMD, being able to operate on small arrays of data in parallel, is a major part of modern CPU's performance, and Arm's SVE is the first you're likely to use that isn't awful. Better SIMD means better compilers and happier programmers.

Hardware capabilities

Hardware capabilities is a security model that protects memory on a fine-grained basis using unforgeable tokens stored in the program directly. It offers vastly better memory protection than traditional memory models, and has been explored with the CHERI project on both Arm and RISC-V. However, it requires program-level changes to function.

Tachyum Prodigy

Tachyum announced their new CPUs at Hot Chips 2018, and seem on track to actually produce a product. They are taking another long-needed stab at a mostly-in-order VLIW-ish CPU, aiming for passable IPC at fast clocks and peak throughput that rivals GPUs. Preliminary performance claims look good, but so far it's just marketing.

Mill Computing

The Mill is an even more revolutionary design, with many large innovations from the core execution pipeline to multiprocessing to memory protection. I have issues with their performance claims, but more relevant than that they're just evidently never going to ship.

Packaging

Packaging, aka. how silicon is bundled together to make processors, is a hotbed of innovation right now.

3D stacked chips

DRAM and NAND flash are already 3D stacked, and this tech is coming to CPUs. Stacking logic allows for vastly denser packing of components, which is particularly important for memory access and other long-distance wiring. Intel's Foveros is a cool upcoming technology in this space. Pervasive stacking requires fundamental architectural redesigns, since it produces proportionally more heat over the same area, while making heat harder to remove.

Wireless 3D integration

Most silicon-silicon stacks communicate with physical metal connections. An alternative is ‘inductive coupling’, the same process used in wireless charging. This has some advantages and some disadvantages, with the main advantage being price. Refer to ‘Thru-Chip Interface’, and this Arm blog post

Silicon interposers

Chiplets, like used on recent AMD processors, communicate fairly slowly, at high power cost. Using silicon interposers, which can contain much denser wiring, opens up more opportunities for expansion, such as into lower power environments, bandwidth heavy workloads like GPUs, and faster memory access. Intel is pushing this with EMIB.

MCM GPUs

These are ‘Multi-Chip Module’ GPUs, aka. GPU chiplets. Intel is bounding into this space with some of their upcoming Xe GPUs, particularly ‘Ponte Vecchio’. NVIDIA has published research on this too.

x86 big.LITTLE

Intel will soon bundle large, powerful and small, efficient cores on the same chip, a practice long used in smartphone CPUs to save power. Their first chip to do this is Lakefield.

Silicon Photonics

Optical communication has inherent advantages for bandwidth and signal integrity. Intel (have I mentioned them a lot recently?) have made major advances in this space.

Waferscale Integration

Silicon is generally size-limited to the ‘reticle’, the maximal area that can be exposed by the lithography machine when printing a silicon chip. Waferscale integration adds patterns between these reticle-sized areas so that the whole silicon wafer can work together as a single chip. This is an old idea, but it's always been hard.

AI hardware

Machine learning has made AI a big deal, and neural networks are amiable to very particular hardware innovations. There is so much in this space that I selected only the most innovative approaches.

Cerebras

Following from the previous topic, Cerebras have made a waferscale machine learning accelerator, with 18 GB of SRAM and other insane specifications. Their chip is model parallel, which means a neural net is spread physically out over the chip, more like an FPGA than a CPU. Cerebras have shipped to select partners.

Groq Tensor Streaming Processor

Groq is a lesser-known AI hardware startup with an incredibly innovative approach and impressive performance numbers. See The Linley Group's report for details. Groq's chips are available for cloud use for select partners.

Mythic.AI

AI is largely a matrix multiplication problem; Mythic approaches this by using analogue operations directly on NAND storage, which makes for good poweperformance with much higher memory density than SRAM or even DRAM products. Mythic.AI has not yet shipped.

Vathys

Vathys tackles the memory problem by using 3D stacked memory with wireless integration, custom memory cells, and custom asynchronous logic. Watch their 2017 talk for details.

Alibaba HanGuang

We know almost nothing about Alibaba's chip, but it is included here because of its unusually high performance claims. If it's legit, it's doing something clever... but keep the emphasis on ‘if’.

Memory

With DRAM scaling dying, there is a lot of activity in new memory technologies, above an already innovative baseline.

Zoned Namespace SSDs

Current storage standards do not map cleanly to SSD hardware. ZNS is an upcoming standard that exposes storage as sequentially-writable blocks of memory. This allows SSDs to reduce overprovisioning and include less DRAM and cheaper controllers, while offering greater performance and endurance. Using these SSDs does require software support from the file systems and databases running on them.

Waferscale SSDs

Kioxia is developing a waferscale SSD it hopes will be as low as a fifth the price per bit by removing processing and packaging steps. This would put a large 50TB wafer at only $1500.

3D XPoint DIMMs (‘DC Persistent Memory’)

People are rightly unenthusiastic about current Optane SSDs, but consumer support for Optane DIMMs, which offer near-DRAM performance at potentially a much better price per bit, with support for non-volatile regions, should change that. Next-generation Optane has twice the layers, so twice the capacity. Intel is still subsidising Optane with Xeon sales for now. Micron will also enter the 3D XPoint market soon, though their plans around DIMMs are unclear.

DDR5

Next-generation memory has a few great features, but the headline features are double the capacity and much higher speeds; SK Hynix claiming they're working on as high as DDR5-8400. DDR5 will also have support for on-die ECC.

NVRAM

An addendum to the DDR5 standard, NVRAM adds support for non-volatile memory for technology with near-DRAM characteristics. This does not include Optane, which is not quite fast enough without a DRAM caching layer. NVRAM also includes support for much higher capacities than stock DDR5. I won't cover all the NVRAM contenders, just the most interesting two.

Persistent DIMM filesystems and databases

New software is needed to most effectively use Optane DIMMs and NVRAM, since they offer byte-sized accesses and vastly lower latency than even the fastest SSDs. Filesystems can also support DAX, which allows files to be mapped directly into process memory, using the underlying persistence of the storage, with no overhead.

Nantero NRAM

NRAM is carbon nanotube memory, using them as physical switches that can be toggled with electrical fields, all roughly as fast as DRAM but without the scalability issues of capacitors, and in a manner that is fully non-volatile. They have given very aggressive performance targets, such as aiming to fully replace DRAM, and perhaps later even expand into embedded caches.

Spin technologies

Produced (currently in small quantities) by Everspin, these various spin-based memories are based on polarized magnetic fields. They are applicable to both NVRAM applications and embedded caches.

CXL, Gen-Z

These are next-gen standards for interconnects, both local to memory and accelerators (CXL), and at a larger rack-scale (Gen-Z), offering support for coherent accesses.

In-memory compute

Since NAND flash and DRAM accesses are much slower than local memory accesses from cache, people have long wished to be able to do computation in memory directly. A recent attempt is by UPMEM, that offers DIMMs with integrated processors with very high aggregate throughput. Mythic.AI also attempts to do neural network calculations inside flash memory. Personally, I expect UPMEM will be fighting an uphill battle, but Mythic.AI's approach seems like an applicable niche if sufficiently performant.

Graphics

Graphics is always pushing the forefront of technology; this is the largest section.

Xe Graphics

Intel is entering the discrete GPU market soon. If nothing else, this should help the market's competitiveness. They are going to use MCM GPUs, at least in the high end, with Ponte Vecchio connecting either 16 or 32 chiplets in a single GPU (with 6 GPUs to a board!). Initial performance numbers from their lowest-end cards seem unimpressive, but that could be an early-hardware issue.

Next-gen consoles

The Playstation 5 and Xbox Series X have been announced, with very impressive performance numbers for both their GPUs and CPU, with fast SSDs to boot. Game graphics take a leap when consoles do, so the downstream effects should be significant.

Other next-gen GPUs

There isn't much to say about next-generation GPUs except that the rumours are dealing with big numbers, like 50% performance uplifts.

Hardware decompression

Consoles have hardware decompression to maximize asset streaming bandwidth in games. Specialized hardware didn't make much sense for desktop processors when storage speed was low (just do it in software), and on-SSD compression (which used to be a thing) has issues, but dedicated decompression accelerators now make sense for many desktop markets, and would certainly help games.

Sampler Feedback Streaming

This technique allows for fast, efficient, and live streaming of texture detail from the SSD to the GPU as texture data is needed. I've written about this in detail.

Mesh shading

The Geometry Pipeline is dead, long live the Geometry Pipeline!
Mesh shading replaces the standard geometry pipeline with a largely software based implementation, allowing for mesh(let) compression, better culling, and better LOD implementations, and presumably a whole lot more once people get used to it. I believe this is the same thing as the PS5's Geometry Engine.

Next-gen DLSS

DLSS 2.0 is an image upscaling algorithm using temporal supersampling, aka. collecting pixel data over multiple frames. It shows very good results with high detail and very low aliasing, and practically doubles a GPU's effective performance. AI is getting better very fast, and version 2.0 is only the second step.

Frame rate upscaling

Frame rate upscaling allows rendering at one frame rate and adding generated intermediates either between or after the true frames, depending on where one sits on the quality-latency trade-off. As AI accelerators can be made very fast, this is likely cheaper than truly rendering all those intermediate frames, and AI frame rate upscaling is likely to have significantly less artefacting than traditional algorithmic methods.

AI graphics enhancement

If you've been following NVIDIA's GAN papers, like StyleGAN 2, you'll know that they are unfairly good at generating images. Eventually these techniques will allow live improvements of either textures or full video game frames. This won't happen tomorrow, but it is clear NVIDIA thinks AI graphics is the future.

Foveated rendering

The human eye has a very small sweet spot, outside of which we have low sensitivity to detail. With an eye tracker and a sufficient refresh rate, the computer can render at high detail only those areas of the screen that are viewed directly, with other areas rendered at low detail. Artefact-free upscaling methods, such as AI-based approaches, are needed to avoid negative impacts.

Texture-Space Shading

TSS has been done before, but Sampler Feedback is needed to make it efficient. Instead of rendering pixels at the screen, the textures of the viewed triangles are rendered on the object mesh from the camera perspective. This reduces artefacts like flickering, and has several extra gains, which I've split out into the next few points.

Asynchronous shading

With TSS, it is possible to render the pixels to the mesh at one ‘shading rate’ and resolution, and rasterize this to an image at a greater frame rate and resolution. These lower texture rates and resolutions are less visible than screen-space effects, since the triangle mesh is preserved at full fidelity. Further, meshlets may be shaded at rates depending on specularity, rotational velocity, or movement of a light source, with resolutions depending on other variables. Different properties of a texture might even be rendered at different rates.

TSS & Virtual Reality

TSS has two primary advantages for VR environments. First, both eyes can reuse all or some shaded texels. Second, texture-space foveated rendering will probably have fewer artefacts than traditional downscaling approaches.

Texture-Space DLSS and interpolation

This is purely conjecture, but I suspect that with the easy accessibility of mipmaps and the reduced artefacting of TSS, performing AI upscaling and frame rate interpolation (for specularity) on textures directly will produce better output than screen-space approaches.

Simulations in games

With consoles having faster multicore CPUs, and desktop CPUs going as high as 64 cores, more physics simulations will become practical in games. A 64 core CPU has a lot of headroom, should they come down in price over the next decade.

Human-Computer Interaction

Monitors and input devices don't change all that quickly, but we also get more media attention on longer timescale developments, like MicroLED, lightfields, and brain-computer interfaces.

OLED monitors

OLED has vastly superior colour and switching speeds to LCD. Samsung has reportedly exited the LCD business to focus fully on OLED displays. OLED so far has had limited impact on monitors due to its susceptibility to burn-in, but advances like Quantum Dot OLED displays, which use mono-blue OLED pixels, somewhat reduce susceptibility to burn-in.

Dual-layer LCDs

LCDs suffer from low contrast due to light leakage. Dual-layer LCDs greatly reduce light leakage by stacking two LCD filters over a standard backlight, with only the top layer screen running at full resolution. This closes the image quality gap between LCDs and OLED using the cheaper panels of the two.

MicroLED

MicroLED is an inorganic variant of OLED, generally with no susceptibility to burn-in and much higher supported peak brightness, and potentially even better black levels. MicroLEDs can be fabricated fairly efficiently, but it is currently very challenging to embed these into usable panels at affordable prices. However, it seems to be the future of displays, and is under very active R&D. AMQLED is another inorganic emissive LED technology using quantum dots competing in this space.

MicroLED-on-wafer displays

MicroLEDs are expensive to pick-and-place, but can be fabricated at very high densities with traditional semiconductor processes. In some applications, small, incredibly high density displays are actually superior, such as VR and AR, and microLED has a much easier entry to that market. JBD have the most impressive demos of this: up to 2 million nits, 5000x4000 resolution, 10,000 dpi, at 1,000 Hz, all in displays that weigh a gram or less. Properly calibrated full-colour displays are WIP, but the promise is clear. You can also print OLEDs on silicon, termed Si-OLED, with similar density.

CLEARink

CLEARink is an ePaper-like ink-based reflective display, but structured like an LCD, built in a modified LCD fab. They support colour using a filter, have better contrast than ePaper, and can make both bistable and (moderately) high-refresh rate panels.

Advanced Color ePaper

We've had colour ePaper for a while using colour filters, but traction has been limited in consumer markets because of the reduced contrast. E Ink have figured out how to provide colour ePaper without a colour filter, by putting all coloured pigments in every pixel.

Lightfield cameras and displays

Lightfields capture the full field of light over a plane, capturing all views at all angles of a scene. A simplified problem exists for VR, where a lightfield display only needs to handle all focal planes. Various approaches exist to tackle this, such as stacking a few projections in each focal plane, or using microlens arrays over ultra-dense backing displays.

EMG interfaces

Oculus recently bought CTRL-labs, producers of a supposedly high-fidelity EMG device that reads neuron signals to the hand from a device strapped around the wrist, allowing reconstruction of muscle movements, with more bandwidth than from traditional controller based approaches. CTRL-labs have shown people typing with this hardware.

Neural interfaces

Going to the extremes, Neuralink is looking to insert physical neuron detectors directly into the brain. Watch their launch event or read their paper for details. This is a consumerization of technology that has been proofed out in universities, and we're at the point where it's moving from questions of possibility to questions of feasibility.

Next-gen VR

We don't know anything about next-gen VR specifically, but VR will eventually become the endgame for interactive experiences, and it is all a question of refinement. Keep an eye out for this.

Circuitry

The fundamental backbone of computational advances, and one of the most advanced tasks mankind has tackled, this section covers both short- and long-term advances in this space.

New process nodes

TSMC's 5nm and 3nm, Intel's 10nm+ (aka. ‘working 10nm’) and 7nm, and perhaps Samsung's future nodes too, all represent important steps forward for the industry. There's not much to say specifically about these, except that it looks optimistically like we'll stay on a good cadence until at least TSMC 3nm, and Intel's 7nm should bring fresh competition to the market.

Nano OPS

Nano OPS is a replacement for much of the established semiconductor fabrication pipeline, excluding lithography. They claim it costs one to two orders of magnitude less, supports a greater variety of materials, and comes at no loss to fidelity. They ‘just finished the qualification [...] with a $35B US electronics company’ (presumably Micron) and are ‘working on the equipment that would go into their fabs’. If true, this would legitimately revolutionize the industry. Here's an interview with their CTO.

AI hardware optimization

AI is well suited to several aspects of circuit design optimization, particularly during place and route. Google has just released a paper on this, showing results better than manually optimized layouts.

Quantum

Quantum has had recent breakthroughs, particularly from Google and IBM, who both have 53 bit quantum computers. We are a long way from practical applications, and they are more limited than most of the public understands, but they truly represent cutting-edge physics and the effort to build them is sincere.

New structures and materials

Upcoming process nodes are introducing new techniques and materials, like nanowires and germanium. See semiengineering.com to gain insight.

Vacuum-Channel Transistors

Affordable nanoscale fabrication has sparked investigation of vacuum channel transistors—the same technology used in vacuum tubes. At sufficiently small scales, the downsides of vacuum channels (such as power, and surprisingly also the need to pull a vacuum) significantly reduce, and vacuum channels are otherwise extremely efficient electron carriers, allowing for much higher switching rates than semiconductors. This technology is in very early prototype stages, so don't hold your breath.

Asynchronous Logic

The clock signal is a surprisingly power hungry aspect of modern chips, and acts as a performance limiter. Asynchronous logic tracks its own readiness, removing the need for a clock signal. Asynchronous logic has a lot of problems, some of which are integral to the technology—it costs wires to keep track of readiness—and some of which is simply an issue of tooling, but it has long been an area of curiosity with occasional experimentation by both academia and major industry players.

Optical computing

Light has several theoretical advantages over electricity, so there is continual interest in using it for computations directly. The best early progress has been in using light for matrix multiplication for AI applications.

Integrated FPGAs

FPGAs are much faster at a subset of computations than CPUs are. Several companies have experimented with CPU-FPGA hybrids, like Intel's Xeon Scalable Gold 6138P. It is likely these products stay niché.

Superconducting computing

Superconducting circuits can operate at vastly better frequencies with a fraction of the power cost per computation (though it takes some work to keep them cool). Superconducting circuits do exist for very specific use-cases, at very limited scale.

Reversible computing

Unlikely to be relevant for a long while, eventually computing may hit something called Landauer's principle, which gives the theoretical lower limit for energy consumption by computations—this is still millions of times less energy than currently used by computers. Landauer's limit can only be avoided with logically reversible computing, which preserves information needed to undo the computation.

Other

Here are a few more things of potential importance.

Starlink

SpaceX is putting satellites in low earth orbit to serve high-bandwidth internet, globally, at better-than-fibre latency. This will have a major impact on the global internet, both in terms of service accessibility to the underserved, and reducing some long haul latencies as much as a factor of two. If SpaceX's Starship rocket pans out, space tech is likely to become very significant.

Fuchsia

Not quite hardware, but still subreddit-relevant, Fuchsia is a truly new operating system by Google. Unlike Android, it is not based on Linux. Fuchsia does a lot of things right, such as its security model, and is making steady progress.

Better batteries

Battery technology doesn't improve as fast as silicon, but it does improve, regardless of how bitter people are that a battery made in a university lab from an article in 2015 hasn't made product yet. Solid state batteries look to be starting production ramp, with expectations of mass production this decade. Tesla has a Battery Day soon, where they should make their own outlandish claims about the future.

Off-topic bonus: Fusion

Fusion power research has recently had a renaissance, with lots of new companies entering the space. These aren't your old many-billion ITER projects; new technology has made the problem far more tractable. Designs based on high temperature superconductors came into prominence in 2015, with MIT's ARC; you can learn about this approach from this talk. First Light Fusion is another challenger, attempting an interesting take on inertial fusion using specially-shaped pellets.
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