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2021 Draft V2
1 - New York Jets - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson - Jets are still winless? Yup. I think its pretty clear at this point that Darnold isnt the future and Trevor Lawrence is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Honestly, it really doesnt matter what team picks here, because I'm near 100% sure Lawrence should go 1. Jets land themselves a franchise QB. Lets hope Adam Gase isnt around to ruin him as well.
2 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State - Losing is winning for Jacksonville right now, with both Minshew and Luton looking like capable near starters but neither being THE guy for the Jaguars. Those problems should be set to rest with the arrival of Justin Fields, however. Fields has been utterly electric this year for the Buckeyes and would be a nice shot in the arm for a Jacksonville passing attack that has been pretty poor this decade.
3 - Dallas Cowboys - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon - The Great Wall of Dallas must be a distant memory at this point for the Cowboys, with the current line a shadow of its former self. Tyron Smith’s contract is
4 - New York Giants - Ja’marr Chase, WR, LSU - This was a close one here. The Giants really need an inside linebacker and Darius Slayton has been a great player for them. But Jamarr Chase is just that good. And the rest of the Giants receivers outside of Slayton dont exactly inspire any confidence. Daniel Jones might or might not still be the Giants QB of the future, but Jamarr Chase should absolutely be their WR1 going forward.
5 - Washington Football Team - Trey Lance, QB, NDSU - Haskins is probably done. I dont foresee any sort of happy conclusion to his time in Washington, and thus Ron Riveria is probably going to look to install his own guy at QB, with Alex Smith obviously not having it and Kyle Allen having peaked at handing off to CMC. Trey Lance might not be a near finished product the top 2 QBs are, but he has gobs of potential and has a ceiling that might even surpass Fields or Lawrence. Will Trey Lance end up being Mahomes/Josh Allen or just another big armed bust? That’ll be up to the Washington coaching staff, but he’s a fantastic prospect for Washington to figure out.
6 - Chicago Bears (Via Los Angeles Chargers - Sends 1.16, 3.80, 2022 CHI 1st, 2022 CHI Second for 1.06, 2022 LAC 3rd) - Zach WIlson, QB, BYU - After watching that horrid display of the Chicago offense on Sunday, I think it's clear the Bears NEED a different QB if they want to win it all. They were anemic against a pretty horrid Titans defense and with 3 of the top 4 QB prospects off the board, the Bears bite the bullet. With an aging defense and their Super Bowl window closing fast, they jump up high to draft Zach Wilson. Wilson has been flying up the draft boards recently, torching defenses on his possible Heisman campaign. He’s got great mobility, especially when it comes to extending plays, and solid pocket presence. Most of all, there’s a bit of reckless brilliance that reminds me a little of guys like Stafford, Mahomes and Allen. Its a fine line to balance and Wilson does have his flaws - such as too much aggressiveness and concerns about his shoulder’s durability, but if the Bears can keep Allen Robinson, then I can foresee a very fruitful connection in the future between the two, as well as a chance for Wilson to be the best QB in Bears history (Yes, its that bad).
7 - Miami (Via Houston Texans) - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami - Miami’s pass rush wasnt as anemic as it was last year, but it certainly still isnt good. They need help there, and Rousseau could be the replacement they have been looking for ever since they lost Robert Quinn and Cam Wake. Rousseau is still very raw, but the potential here is sky high and his punch is elite. If he can develop his this repertoire some more, he could be as scary as someone like Chase Young, who he was able to keep up with in 2019.
8 - Cincinnati Bengals - Alex Leatherwood, OT/OG, Alabama - Parsons and Surtain are tempting here, but when you just drafted a franchise QB #1 overall, protecting him should be priority 1, 2, and 3, especially after how many hits Joe Burrow took to begin the year. The Bengals need line help everywhere, especially on the right side, and Leatherwood is a 4 year starter who can excel at both OT and OG. He should be an immediate upgrade to either Bobby Hart or Trey Hopkins/Alex Redmond/whoever the hell starts at RG for the Bengals and hopefully significantly improve the protection of Burrow.
9 - Carolina Panthers - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State - Miach Parsons is a special linebacker, athletic, versatile, rangy and smart. He’s disruptive everywhere, and his ability to slip blocks and penetrate the offensive line definitely shows his background as a defensive end. Outside of perhaps not being the most consistent run defender, something that's barely an issue, the only flaws are nitpicky. There isnt much else to say about this pick. A year after losing Luke Kuechly, Carolina has their replacement.
10 - Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama - Pretty easy pick here. Surtain II is an elite cover corner in every way and should be a lock down guy day 1 for whatever team he starts on, which is a boon for the Falcons. With Matt Ryan and Julio Jones both aging and their title window almost nailed shut, Surtain II might be able to pry it open just enough to where the Falcons can go for one last shot at a ring.
11 - Detroit Lions - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama - There’s been a lot of rumblings about Kenny Golloday’s unhappiness in Detroit, and although I do think they ought to pay him, if they cant come to an agreement and franchise tag him, they’ll likely need a replacement. And thats not even mentioning both Marvin Jones Jr and Danny Amendola are also free agents at the end of this year. That makes WR a pretty big need for the Lions. Enter DeVonta Smith, who’s surpassed his teammate Waddle as the #2 WR on my big board. Any concerns he had last year are all gone now, especially with Waddle out. It’s been the DeVonta showdown at Alabama, punctuated with a 200+ yard 4 TD performance against Mississippi State. Smith has Charmin soft hands and fantastic route running, and most importantly, gets fantastic separation. He’s a bit thin at only 175, but his frame should fill out nicely once he gets to the NFL. Whether he’s the Lions new #1 or a #2, either way he should be an elite weapon for Stafford to play with.
12 - Minnesota Vikings - Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State - The Vikings OL has two possible building blocks of the future in Ezra Cleveland and Brian O’Neil as well as an OK starter in Garrett Bradbury, but that leaves two rather large holes on the offensive line. Dakota Dozier’s a free agent at the end of this year, Cleveland might end up moving to OT, Pat Eiflen hasnt shown much to be excited about and I think the only time Vikings fans want to see Dru Samia on the field is if he’s starting for the opponents. Wyatt Davis is the last of the truly elite prospects in this class, an elite guard prospect who will run over anyone in his way and a plug, play and forget guy from Day 1. Count this pick as killing 3 birds with one stone. Helping Cousins, helping Dalvin Cook and the run game, and protecting whoever the Vikings pick as the QB of the future.
13 - Jacksonville Jaguars (Via New England Patriots via San Francisco 49ers - Sends 1.22, 3.66 for 1.13) - Dillion Radunz, OT, NDSU - After drafting their QBOTF in Justin Fields, the Jaguars now need to protect him. And with so much draft capital on their hands, they part ways with some of it in order to move up and grab the last OT I could consider a possible day 1 starter, OT Dillion Radunz out of NDSU. There are some question marks about athleticism and competition level, but Radunz’s technique is elite, and his toughness is unquestionable. He should be a welcome addition to the Jaguars offensive line, and will provide solid protection for Fields.
14 - Denver Broncos - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State - From what Ive seen of the Broncos, Drew Lock has shown plenty of promise, and Garrett Bolles has actually been playing at a near elite level all season. That leaves one last problem for the Broncos, their secondary. Bryce Callahan has been fantastic all year and I've heard some praise for Michael Ojemudia, but AJ Bouye has been a disappointment, and that's when he’s on the field. Shaun Wade should be able to be that final piece in the Broncos secondary they need. It was close between Farley and Wade, but with the season the Broncos have had, Wade’s ability to stay on the field was the tiebreaker. Of course, that's only a bonus to Wade’s fantastic coverage ability, especially from the slot, and his run defense reminds me of Trae Waynes’s ability to stop the run at corner. With how complex NFL offenses are now, Wade’s ability to be both a slot and outside corner means he can follow a #1 WR wherever they go, which is surely should help him become an elite CB at the next level.
15 - San Francisco 49ers - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech - The 49ers have 0 total CBs under contract in 2022. Yes, ZERO. That makes CB a huge huge need for them. Fortunately, Caleb Farley has dropped into their laps. He’s an outstanding press corner, and mirrors opposing receivers so well that he might as well be running their routes. He’s long, physical, and impressively sticky, and should be an elite outside corner for the 49ers. Grabbing Farley would allow for the 49ers to more easily part ways with Sherman or Verrett, as the #1 CB spot should not be an issue for them anymore.
16 - Los Angeles Chargers (Via Chicago Bears) - Creed Humphrey, iOL, Oklahoma - Herbert looks like a franchise QB so far, so the Chargers look to fix the most glaring issue on their team, their offensive line. With plenty of experience in Oklahoma’s zone blocking scheme and having protected both Kyler Murray and Spencer Rattler, Humphrey should slot into the Charger’s ZBS scheme perfectly. Thats not even mentioning his football smarts or his leadership, both of which would be huge boons for the Chargers offense. Humphrey should be a centerpiece in the Chargers offensive line for years to come.
17 - Miami Dolphins (via Cleveland Browns - sends 1.21, 3.87 for 1.17, 4.114) - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama - How can anyone pass up reuniting Tua and his old college buddy? Of course, Waddle isnt just Tua’s former WR. He’s an explosive receiver who shreds the turf just like his former teammate Henry Ruggs III, a player with a great catch radius and the ability to dart to the holes in coverages, and a great kick/punt returner. Adding a burner like Waddle who can stretch the field should only help Tua, Parker, Williams, and the rest of the Miami offense.
18 - Indianapolis Colts - Jaycee Horn, CB, - Xavier Rhodes has had a resurgence for the Colts, but it's hard to say how long that will last, and there have been issues with the other corners getting torched. Jaycee Horn should help with that problem. A physical aggressive corner who knows how to properly use his size as leverage against opposing WRs, Horn would benefit greatly from Rhodes, and could be a great compliment alongside him as well. You want to see him at his best? Watch his game against Auburn and think of the ceiling.
19 - Philadelphia Eagles - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia - The Eagles WR situation was looking dire, but thanks to the emergence of second year WR Travis Fulgham, they can look to shore up another issue. The Eagles secondary has been pretty terrible for a few years now, and they need to find a solid answer. Tyson Campbell has been excellent at Georgia. He’s a bit thin at 6-2 185, but possesses outstanding athleticism and has very loose hips as well as great agility, making him an extremely interesting prospect. He is a bit raw and would need some development, but if the Eagles can properly develop him, Campbell can be an island in the NFL.
20 - Arizona Cardinals - Jay Tufele, iDL, USC - The Cardinals passing defense is pretty terrible, and corner is a definite need. However, there’s more ways to improve a passing defense than just adding corners, and Tufele is too much value to pass up here for the Cardinals. Tufele can be a dominant force at 1 or 3T, with his explosiveness and powerful hands, which allows him to be utterly unblockable at times. And adding such an interior force would boost the Cardinals pass rush even more, which could also help improve their defense. If Tufele can become more consistent, there’s no good reason why the Cardinals defensive line can’t become one of the best in the NFL.
21 - Cleveland Browns (Via Miami Dolphins) - Kwity Paye, Michigan, EDGE -Myles Garrett is having a DPOY level season, but once again he’s missing someone disruptive on the opposite side of him. Oliver Vernon is gone soon, and Clayborn is no long term solution. They need to grab the compliment to Garrett, who although is a one-man wrecking ball, is still one man. Kwity Paye is a very strong power rusher who can uses his bull rush well to set the LOS. He’s a tank with fantastic explosiveness and a pretty high ceiling, and his ability to cause problems against the opposing offensive line should be welcome on the Browns defense.
22 - New England Patriots (Via Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams) - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida - TEs and the Patriots, name a more iconic duo. BB cant ignore BPA here any longer, and grabs the stud TE out of Florida in Kyle Pitts. He isnt in the same mold as the traditionally favored type the Patriots like, but he’s at least a willing blocker and can be coached up in that area. More importantly, He’s an extremely versatile weapon in the way that most modern TEs are with fantastic routes, soft hands, a huge catch radius and an excellent understanding of how to beat zone, able to line up all over and cause issues for the opposing defense. With the receiving corps is more barren than the Sahara, especially thanks to some brutal misses at WR Cough N’Keal Harry Cough, Pitts should be a great weapon for BB to play around with, and can carry the mantle of excellent Patriots tight ends that have been held by Gronkowski, Hernandez and Coates.
23 - Las Vegas Raiders - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia - The Raiders EDGE corps isnt barren the way it was two years ago, but Maxx Crosby hasnt lived up to the hype he had after a stellar rookie season, and although Clelin Ferrell is an elite run defender, he’s nowhere near as good of a pass rusher. They need to add someone who can GET after the QB, and although there are better EDGEs left, I think Ojulari is the best pure pass rusher on the board. He’s got fantastic hand usage and his low center of gravity lets him bend the corner through contact really well. There’s some work to be done on run defense, but Ojulari does give me flashes of Ngakoue at times, and his versatility would allow for Ferrell to slide inside and be a mismatch there. This might be a little high on his currently, but I dont think Ojulari is someone who will end up rising on draft boards in the future
24 - Baltimore Ravens (Via Tennessee Titans - sends 1.27, 4.112 for 1.24) - Trey Smith, OG, Tennessee - With the retirement of Marshall Yanda, the Ravens have had a huge hole at LG that they still haven't been able to fill. And with their offense becoming more and more run heavy due to the addition of JK Dobbins and Lamar Jackson’s rushing abilities, one guy came to mind here. Trey Smith, the OG out of Tennessee, seemed like the natural fit. Smith is an absolute road grader in the run game, absolutely flattening whatever defensive players who are unfortunately enough to get into his way. He’s solid enough in pass protection, but more importantly, his fantastic run blocking paired alongside Orlando Brown Jr should lend itself to an absolutely terrifying run game from the Ravens.
25 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas - The Buccaneers OL was absolutely dominated by the Saints, and Donovan Smith really isnt the answer at LT. osmi is an intriguing prospect with tons of athleticism and excellent smarts, someone who wins via brains and technique rather than pure brawn. With enough practice and proper coaching, Cosmi and Wirfs can be excellent bookends for the Buccaneers in the future.
26 - New York Jets (Via Seattle Seahawks) - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota - Trevor Lawrence is now in New York, but he needs weapons if they want him to succeed. Denzel Mims is still a prospect, and although Jamison Crowder has been good, I dont think he’s anyone’s idea of a #1 WR. Thats why Ive got New York picking Bateman. Bateman’s a big play machine, someone who not only runs great routes, but gobbles up YAC once he has the ball. He should be a fantastic addition to the Jets offense, as a reliable target for Lawrence, and could build a fantastic rapport with him.
27 - Tennessee Titans (Via Baltimore Ravens) - Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas - The Titans went up against a Bengals Oline that was starting 3rd stringers and recorded 0 sacks. Thats all I need to say about how terrible the Titans pass rush is. Landry is still pretty promising, but at this point Clowney is neither an answer to the pass rush woes nor is he likely staying long term in Tennessee, and Derick Roberson has had 1 good game against a terrible Bears OL. Joseph Ossai could be the answer here, though. A quick trigger pass rusher who has plenty of room for improvement, Ossai presents a tantalizing option for Tennessee as someone who has the ability to become a very dominant pass rusher. He’d be a great fit in the Titans hybrid defense, and could grow into a cornerstone alongside Simmons and Landry on the DL.
28 - Buffalo Bills - Josh Myers, iOL, Ohio State - The Bills have been carried by the brilliance of Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the pass attack, but the rushing attack has been terrible this year, ranking in the bottom third. Replacing one of their iOL with Josh Myers is a good first step to fixing that issue. Myers is a very mobile iOL who is a great anchor and provides stability in both the pass and run game. He was an integral part of helping JK Dobbins dominate at Ohio State, and would hopefully allow the flagging run game to pick up potency once again, as well as being a stalwart on the line.
29 - Green Bay Packers - Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU - Davante Adams might be the best WR in the league, but there’s a reason why he gets so many targets from Aaron Rodgers. The rest of the Packers WR corps doesnt inspire that much confidence. Not to mention that the talent is too much here to pass up. Marshall has been fantastic at LSU with Chase out - which is more impressive with how bad LSU has been, and he’s got all the physical traits to be an elite WR. He rarely gets caught in press coverage and with his ball skills and frame, excels in contested catch situations. He’ll be a fantastic addition alongside Adams for the Packers offense, as someone who is good enough to be a WR#1 himself, someone who should be a complete mismatch going against CB2s.
30 - Kansas City Chiefs - Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama - The Chiefs overall have been elite once again this year, but there’s one clear flaw in their team, the run defense, which ranks in the bottom 5 in the league. Good thing Dylan Moses is available here. He’s an elite athlete with plenty of range and can hit like a truck. He also knows when to wrap up and is generally a sure tackler, which is a rather underappreciated trait. He does need to improve his ability to diagnose plays and shed blocks, but overall, he’s a force at ILB, and would greatly help out Chiefs ailing run defense.
31 - Carolina Panthers (via New Orleans Saints - sends 2.42, 4.106, 2022 3rd for 1.31) - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida - Teddy Bridgewater is a good stopgap, but the Panthers need a long term solution at QB if they dont want to waste CMC’s career. So, they trade up for Kyle Trask in a move reminiscent of the Ravens trade for Lamar Jackson in 2018 to secure the 5th year option. Trask is still very raw, but he’s been excellent at Florida, and has especially excellent in short routes and RPO plays. He’s also quite good at extending plays, and his ability to manipulate the defense with his eyes is very advanced. With CMC as a safety valve, Trask should be able to be a very nice fit for Joe Brady’s offense, which has excelled with Bridgewater and Burrow, both of whom are very accurate passers the same way Trask is.
32 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson - The Steelers dont have a ton of needs, and OT is probably the safest pick here, but James Conner is an FA after this year and there are questions if the Steelers should pay him big money. Travis Etienne is also the best RB in the class and easily BPA here. Etienne is an elite RB, who can break off huge chunks of yardage at a time and rip defenses apart with his burst. He’s also improved his catching ability to where he can be a every down RB. With Pittsburgh still a SB contender for the near future and possibly question marks on James Connor’s future, Etienne seems like a great fit here to both replace Connor’s production and keep Pittsburgh in title contention for the near future.
Who We Should Root for This Week
Chicago @ Green Bay (8:20 Sunday)Root for: Packers
Importance Rating: 1/100
I would go for the strength of victory tiebreaker, but that is irrelevant since the Colts have beaten both of these clubs. I suppose since the Indianapolis / Green Bay game was more recent, them improving to 8-3 makes us holding onto the win even more impressive.
Also, this may be a bit of a stretch, but perhaps we want to face the Packers in the Super Bowl. There's no way of knowing how we'd fare against the Saints, Rams, or Seahawks, but right now I'd take Green Bay over any of those three (though a revenge game against Drew Brees would be sweet).
TL;DR Make last week more impressive and play the Packers in Super Bowl LV.
Washington @ Cowboys (4:30 Thanksgiving)Root for: Washington
Importance Rating: 3/100
For a bit, I had no idea who I wanted to win this game. Both teams are 3-7, meaning they have an equal chance to pass up Jacksonville for a draft pick. I guess let the worse team lose? Then, I realized the hidden card that's in play here: Dak Prescott. I'm a Dak-to-the-Colts guy, so I'd like to do whatever possible to make him leave Dallas. Before, I would've thought that this means Dallas should win (so the Cowboys think their team is better, and that Prescott is slightly less valuable). But now I think the decision is more on the quarterback than the front office. Losing to this bad of a team should make #4 see how bad they are without him. Imagine having the mobility of Brissett, the arm of Rivers, and the improvisation of Luck (ok, maybe not quite) all in one guy. The Colts have the cap space. Ballard, make the move!
TL;DR Dak leaves.
Seattle @ Philadelphia (8:15 Monday)Root for: Seahawks
Importance Rating: 4/100
It doesn't help at all for a playoff team in the AFC to have a better record than one in the NFC. Therefore, we should want the Seahawks to win so that they get a worse draft pick than us in the scenario where both teams are knocked out in the same round. Look, there are 16 games this week. I'm trying, ok?
TL;DR Draft ahead of Seattle.
San Francisco @ Los Angeles Rams (4:05 Sunday)Root for: Rams
Importance Rating: 4/100
Hope for the Rams to have a better record for the same reason as the Seahawks. Their first round pick goes to the Jets, and while New York is obviously not a good football team, we might as well keep as much talent out of the AFC as possible. The 49ers are far enough ahead that I don't see any chance of them falling below the Jags.
TL;DR Draft ahead of L.A.
Houston @ Detroit (12:30 Thanksgiving)Root for: Lions
Importance Rating: 7/100
Being just two games ahead, there's still a chance Houston could have a higher draft pick than Jacksonville. Don't forget that this pick will be used to get talent around Tua Tagovailoa rather than Deshaun Watson.
TL;DR Ruin the Jacksonville tank.
Carolina @ Minnesota (1:00 Sunday)Root for: Vikings
Importance Rating: 11/100
Even though most Colts tiebreakers are decided, there are still a few scenarios in which strength of victory / strength of schedule comes into play. A Vikings win helps with that.
TL;DR Strength of victory.
New Orleans @ Denver (4:05 Sunday)Root for: Saints
Importance Rating: 15/100
This game doesn't have any major implications, but Denver only has six losses. It's a long shot, but them winning out (they would have to defeat the Chiefs, Raiders, and Bills) catapults them to 10-6. It would be nice to be able to completely write off the Broncos.
TL;DR Knock out Denver.
New York Giants @ Cincinnati (1:00 Sunday)Root for: Giants
Importance Rating: 20/100
The Bengals are the closest team to passing the Jaguars for the second pick in the draft. They're a half game behind the Giants (who might win the division anyway). Jacksonville, though, only plays one team with a losing record in their last six games, so not getting in the top 2 seems like a long shot for them.
TL;DR Ruin Jacksonville tank.
Arizona @ New England (1:00 Sunday)Root for: Cardinals
Importance Rating: 29/100
The Patriots do not look like they're going to the playoffs this year. But you never know with Bill Belichick. For most teams, I would consider their season done—especially since they still have to face the Bills and the Rams. However, I still have this lingering worry that they'll win out and take one of the playoff spots. I loss here would virtually end any chance of that.
TL;DR Knock out Belichick.
Kansas City @ Tampa Bay (4:25 Sunday)Root for: Buccaneers
Importance Rating: 42/100
With the Chiefs two games ahead (tiebreaker undecided), there's still a small chance Indy could pass them. But I think the more important thing here is the race between the 1 and 2 seed. The Chiefs losing would get Pittsburgh ever closer to clinching that #1 spot, which opens the possibility for playing their reserves in the Colts' second-to-last game of the year.
TL;DR Get the 2 seed and let Pittsburgh clinch the 1.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo (1:00 Sunday)Root for: Chargers
Importance Rating: 53/100
I wanted to put this one higher, but my main concern is getting the Colts into the playoffs. Once they're there, though, it's time to think about grabbing that 3 seed. Both the Bills and Colts are 7-3, but the former will hold the tiebreaker this year. The Colts should want Buffalo to lose as much as possible. Indy hasn't achieved a top 3 seed since 2010, Peyton Manning's last year with the team.
TL;DR Get the 3 seed.
Miami @ New York Jets (1:00 Sunday)Root for: Jets
Importance Rating: 61/100
This one has a positive result no matter who wins. The most important thing right now, though, is getting the Colts a playoff spot. While the Dolphins looked bad last week, they're still 6-4, and will have the tiebreaker over Indianapolis in a potential wildcard race. A New York upset would severely damage Miami's chance of getting in.
TL;DR Stay ahead of the Fins.
Las Vegas @ Atlanta (1:00 Sunday)Root for: Falcons
Importance Rating: 64/100
Hopefully the Colts win on Sunday. But if they don't, the wildcard race is very much in play. While the Week 14 game between the Colts and Raiders will likely decide the seeding between the two, it would still be nice to say the LV fall to 6-5.
TL;DR Stay ahead of the Raiders.
Cleveland @ Jacksonville (1:00 Sunday)Root for: Jaguars
Importance Rating: 65/100
The Browns hold the tiebreaker over the Colts, and the two teams are currently the same record: 7-3. Jacksonville has had some close losses recently (forget last week), and I believe has a decent chance at pulling off the upset. Remember, the Browns are still in the negatives in terms of point differential. This can often be a sign that a team isn't as good as their record shows.
The Jags winning would also hurt them in the tank race. It feels like the Jets are going to lose out, but one upset by them (assuming the Jaguars keep losing) could put Trevor Lawrence in the AFC South.
TL;DR Stay ahead of the Browns.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (8:20 Thanksgiving)Root for: Steelers
Importance Rating: 70/100
A Steelers Victory helps the Colts in two ways. Most importantly, it knocks the Ravens down to 6-5, a spot that would make it tough to make the playoffs considering the nine really good teams. That said, Baltimore has a really easy schedule the rest of the way. This one is especially important since the Colts lose the tiebreaker to the Ravens this year.
Also, this gives the Steelers a better chance at clinching the 1 seed in the AFC. While a lot would have to fall into place correctly, it's a real possibility that Pittsburgh rests their starters in Week 16 if they've locked up the bye already.
TL;DR Stay ahead of the Ravens and let Pittsburgh clinch #1.
Indianapolis @ Tennessee (1:00 Sunday)Root for: Colts
Importance Rating: 93/100
The premier game of the 1 pm slot on CBS has massive playoff implications for the Colts. The winner will have the inside track to the division. For the Colts, this is even more the case; they would essentially be up 1.1 games on the Titans due to holding a one-game lead as well as the tiebreaker. The consequences are also worse for the Colts if they fail; Tennessee is doing much better in wildcard tiebreakers than Indianapolis, as stated in my post yesterday.
TL;DR Biggest game of the year.
Let me know what you think! Are there any picks you disagree with? Any implications I missed?